TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$493,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,564 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28b9…a995backed Yes0c99,902$100 inLost-$99.93312.1%4 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c46,798$47 inLost-$46.8310%0 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x613c…e423backed Yes0c24,869$26 inLost-$26.225930.5%18 W · 41 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf178…c931backed Yes0c17,418$17 inLost-$17.42120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed Yes0c16,196$32 inLost-$32.394327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf20b…4566backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes0c11,875$22 inLost-$21.61250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes0c10,000$28 inLost-$28.0612343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb764…51ddbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$101136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid-24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1c…544cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50af…8b52backed Yes0c8,468$15 inLost-$15140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ad…fd81backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-86.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4d…4231backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes0c4,563$18 inLost-$17.79484.2%2 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c3,480$11 inLost-$10.997135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes1c2,873$33 inLost-$33.094320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes2c2,688$50 inLost-$505516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d41…e3ddbacked Yes1c1,648$20 inLost-$202623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f7…6745backed Yes1c1,363$19 inLost-$192321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf65a…42e2backed Yes2c1,345$27 inLost-$26.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes5c789.16$40 inLost-$40234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed Yes2c622.78$12 inLost-$12293.4%1 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes2c523.78$10 inLost-$10.367610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.