TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$408,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28b9…a995backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost-$1003312.1%4 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40eb…3f31backed Yes0c40,340$55 inLost-$553522.9%8 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613c…e423backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost-$405930.5%18 W · 41 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Yes0c22,004$49 inLost-$49.12140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes0c14,500$15 inLost-$14.5496.1%3 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50af…8b52backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes0c10,093$10 inLost-$10.094320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8818…4bd7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f7…6745backed Yes1c1,849$11 inLost-$112321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes9c175.13$15 inLost-$15234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.