TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,394,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$608,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,394,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6872…876fbacked Yes0c142,347$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.639613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c101,872$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.893103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes0c89,006$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.49527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c79,541$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c75,777$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.275071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes1c47,599$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350496.1%3 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-89.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a9d…0281backed Yes0c45,821$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c39,850$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.952742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked Yes2c33,726$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed Yes0c32,500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf20b…4566backed Yes0c26,863$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes3c26,464$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.652817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf178…c931backed Yes0c21,546$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735f…c2d5backed Yes2c20,072$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c18,441$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4219119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd99…6c21backed Yes0c15,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1690%0 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes0c15,093$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4497…7b78backed Yes1c14,889$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50af…8b52backed Yes0c12,815$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.15140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes1c11,994$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9412343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes0c11,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244520%9 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c10,963$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.711,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8060…c73dbacked Yes1c10,380$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+265.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2a…da43backed Yes1c9,643$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes3c9,496$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.335516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccde…12b9backed Yes14c9,380$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c8,744$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.027135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2771…d030backed Yes3c8,400$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes2c7,518$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.234520%9 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid+91.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…9d04backed Yes0c7,497$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes3c7,322$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.722030%6 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c6,842$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.43717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf87…2974backed Yes0c6,121$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+1,808.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes2c5,734$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes1c5,240$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-73.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6417…f8fabacked Yes1c5,150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba2e…c312backed Yes1c4,896$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-62.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes2c4,389$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.094511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb0…54f2backed Yes2c4,036$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed Yes0c4,014$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…135abacked Yes1c3,990$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.912321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c3,932$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4615523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8c0…9702backed Yes1c3,890$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31d…4d1bbacked Yes0c3,802$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,794$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.674195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882b…a746backed Yes1c3,675$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.936749.3%33 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c3,669$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.272036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc86…e717backed Yes3c3,535$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-69.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f4f…1bd9backed Yes1c3,400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28306.7%2 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-85.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes0c3,348$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.551020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes3c3,330$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ef…f4d4backed Yes3c3,287$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…4314backed Yes0c3,248$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick1cpaid+148.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b7…beebbacked Yes1c3,246$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0117…f6b3backed Yes1c3,161$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes5c3,141$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6212223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b9e…d704backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c3,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.646516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes4c2,965$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.444320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bf…80dabacked Yes2c2,940$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.921030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c2,820$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5411615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa83…cd8bbacked Yes2c2,523$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ef…f2eebacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes14c2,427$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3368833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8c…cf31backed Yes4c2,398$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed8…9dd0backed Yes1c2,286$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…229fbacked Yes1c2,250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c2,184$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.141995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…f972backed Yes1c2,010$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7157…3ab0backed Yes1c2,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-72.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,971$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed Yes3c1,951$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.87422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes1c1,918$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241488.1%12 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+238.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes13c1,900$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce9…06b4backed Yes3c1,836$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502015%3 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e0…9c98backed Yes3c1,763$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,756$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0442311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes2c1,734$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6f…8df2backed Yes1c1,734$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.021612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+92.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9961…d3d7backed Yes4c1,720$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,713$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc43f…b0c8backed Yes7c1,609$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29ba…5a07backed Yes1c1,527$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172516%4 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c1,401$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes2c1,373$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3113942.4%59 W · 80 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5f4…5348backed Yes7c1,363$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Yes2c1,350$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e8…3f9bbacked Yes6c1,334$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb2…d2c3backed Yes3c1,316$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79f5…4002backed Yes2c1,307$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde4…e7a7backed Yes2c1,289$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb764…51ddbacked Yes4c1,247$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid-24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes20c1,247$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb87a…51debacked Yes3c1,158$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick20cpaid+43.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f21…2070backed Yes1c1,059$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes1c1,054$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0368…e741backed Yes1c1,045$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes5c1,001$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474734%16 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae99…1c9dbacked Yes3c999.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.