Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8489e85bebdc36889f6062879df8f7d2e2c1a2a013603203a59c1ef8546b6073

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $401,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,257 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x28b9…a995backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-82.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+122.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x613c…e423backed Yes	0c	39,985$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes	0c	10,994$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	123	43.9%54 W · 69 L	+15.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	128	40.6%52 W · 76 L	+14.8wins	+0.12per pick	29cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xab9b…5404backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Yes	0c	9,761$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes	1c	4,166$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.63	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-73.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f4…5348backed Yes	1c	3,968$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x175f…374cbacked Yes	0c	2,799$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-88%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	0c	2,758$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes	1c	2,713$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-3.8wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes	1c	1,496$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event