TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,197,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,384,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,197,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c115,135$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.9213617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe159…fef1backed Yes1c108,973$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c96,483$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.379613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93c…c121backed Yes1c91,630$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c87,771$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.133103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca3…a161backed Yes1c65,800$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c60,050$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.745071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c59,308$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.311915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes2c58,621$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.233315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c53,600$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.132742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…a995backed Yes1c53,462$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.673312.1%4 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes0c47,000$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.511469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes1c31,975$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.68100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf178…c931backed Yes0c28,287$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.29120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dcc…1852backed Yes1c28,208$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes1c26,959$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.634219%8 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe188…92fbbacked Yes1c24,640$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes3c21,015$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.7810837%40 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes3c20,382$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5733327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda50…b55cbacked Yes0c20,298$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ef…f4d4backed Yes2c20,003$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.754131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cf…69fdbacked Yes1c20,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+89.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc144…fbc2backed Yes1c18,893$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+87.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4497…7b78backed Yes2c17,243$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.6980%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes1c16,977$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25012840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecdf…dd37backed Yes2c14,677$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1a…d391backed Yes2c13,748$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…6600backed Yes1c13,660$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1aac…66fbbacked Yes1c12,883$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.543327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32f9…9158backed Yes1c12,569$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3422.4%1 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2283…b1d8backed Yes2c12,339$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+101%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fad…b08dbacked Yes1c12,304$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c12,057$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.832036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3751…b844backed Yes1c11,980$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e5…38e7backed Yes1c11,847$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c11,445$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.877135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c11,430$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.361,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5180…d8d1backed Yes2c10,841$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed Yes0c10,349$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes1c10,200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d6b…65dbbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…4ce4backed Yes1c10,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x607b…8e5abacked Yes1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb420…0894backed Yes1c10,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes0c9,271$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.274320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f2…0158backed Yes1c8,990$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00c0…4314backed Yes1c8,978$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick1cpaid+148.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe074…10e2backed Yes1c8,356$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.242347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+139.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…4333backed Yes1c8,202$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0e…4bb8backed Yes1c7,778$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c7,577$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.813717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d3…b524backed Yes6c7,362$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61cd…de95backed Yes0c7,189$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac4…cdddbacked Yes0c7,135$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9d…0281backed Yes1c6,956$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cd0…d4e4backed Yes1c6,740$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes1c6,373$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0512343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes1c6,100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No59c6,081$3,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.8112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x986d…6c72backed Yes2c5,955$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c5,683$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.81151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec5…00c8backed Yes1c5,517$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick8cpaid+212.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7b7…6066backed Yes1c5,489$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292c…43bfbacked Yes1c5,450$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes1c5,154$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448920.2%18 W · 71 L+8.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x019a…f457backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf5…53c9backed Yes2c5,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f4f…1bd9backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15306.7%2 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-85.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3bd…1324backed Yes1c4,903$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdcc…c4dcbacked Yes0c4,645$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d08…d06fbacked Yes1c4,603$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes1c4,484$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.454822.9%11 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc566…0781backed Yes1c4,166$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes2c4,160$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+122.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed No33c3,964$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.288633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe99b…98e1backed Yes1c3,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes7c3,749$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.157830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9044…6364backed Yes1c3,688$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c77…fb30backed Yes1c3,671$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes12c3,638$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2411615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes0c3,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a6d…7104backed Yes1c3,443$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.083930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5919…1295backed Yes2c3,433$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a22…86f6backed Yes1c3,429$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes1c3,288$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes17c3,280$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.463737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…9bffbacked Yes1c3,237$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2945…c6ddbacked Yes1c3,223$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44205%1 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7a8…fb9bbacked Yes1c3,205$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a6…3861backed Yes1c3,084$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61df…8514backed Yes1c3,043$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5503…3a8fbacked Yes0c3,035$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c3,034$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.57486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes2c3,007$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.338719.5%17 W · 70 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf74a…a91cbacked Yes2c2,921$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a2…e7bfbacked Yes1c2,817$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…bff4backed Yes1c2,812$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes3c2,811$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0312325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x601d…f618backed Yes1c2,807$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8d…cceebacked Yes1c2,774$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.