TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$485,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,066 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe3f3…e086backed No37c67,731$24,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,802.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes33c27,647$9,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,503.8224258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb08…5a4bbacked No0c18,505$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed Yes77c17,856$13,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,101.01128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-89.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5202…429fbacked No10c13,705$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b92…1761backed Yes66c9,028$5,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.171580%12 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes67c8,502$5,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.1914750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No59c8,052$4,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,782.5211050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0848…ffbebacked No4c7,207$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.95540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes78c6,700$5,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.626647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x188e…70d8backed No71c5,937$4,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,202.7720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe24a…e4babacked No6c4,945$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd8…7100backed Yes55c4,711$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.376442.2%27 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes80c4,709$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.47848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes71c4,617$3,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.941637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No23c4,545$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.55038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4967…4292backed No7c4,428$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58b…381ebacked No7c3,811$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes26c3,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2201926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes71c2,530$1,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.8730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3094…d680backed No5c2,505$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1414…18fcbacked No2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No10c2,243$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.142528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…22fbbacked No5c2,195$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes78c2,090$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.367851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1105…6600backed No50c2,029$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No2c2,005$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.381816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked No8c2,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15370%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes24c1,826$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.142240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No9c1,776$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429a…77fbbacked No2c1,600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64052.5%21 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No51c1,570$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.612552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ac…fa9ebacked No52c1,549$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes22c1,535$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.736437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes79c1,505$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.4339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e7…06c1backed No2c1,491$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ef…a6aabacked No7c1,447$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea8…78d7backed No6c1,441$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No8c1,421$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.571526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+117.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No7c1,397$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0980%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed Yes31c1,397$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.534447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b8…48b5backed No5c1,379$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed No57c1,342$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.175133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bc03backed No5c1,313$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9431…c484backed No8c1,297$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d99…3a93backed No4c1,285$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c1,274$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.033060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No5c1,270$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.03120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…3098backed No58c1,210$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.661070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No28c1,200$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1172…2a45backed No5c1,195$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed No53c1,183$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.332850%14 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36e2…8cd6backed No4c1,169$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed No51c1,113$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.174057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd974…e051backed No67c1,110$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebe2…ab0abacked No5c1,067$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dd…59a8backed No3c1,052$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c9…58abbacked No5c1,037$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf050…88adbacked No5c1,028$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No3c1,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.44117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes23c1,000$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7707356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51015029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eec…f4e2backed Yes46c1,000$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+585.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed No5c980.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d2…4167backed No8c969.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No20c949.36$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.992321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes50c947.26$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.8514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a18…c5c4backed No49c900.65$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe851…5e15backed No7c900.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes48c870.95$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.9413230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002040%8 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5ad3…faa6backed Yes45c845.52$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.992070%14 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xece4…b400backed No7c829.13$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes55c820.48$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.712520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbb…b4c6backed No13c792.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca9a…2774backed No73c781.1$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf00a…6e45backed No13c779.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes75c728.4$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.617243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No14c714$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaef…4421backed No10c679.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No40c668.74$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.094841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes41c647.04$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.118224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked No47c643.13$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf661…5ac3backed No78c641.2$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f8…a1afbacked No8c628.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f035backed No5c621.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked No6c617.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick7cpaid+759.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked No49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes77c601.91$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.993237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198a…3ca3backed No55c600.44$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.472050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41df…4b70backed No56c600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3362035%7 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-32.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes43c575.21$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.498639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes53c574.5$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.554060%24 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No6c560.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.56712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No60c540.68$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.57360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No59c512.69$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.03520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-71.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked No5c509.75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32d…1745backed Yes25c503.23$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+96.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1282…1a25backed No4c500.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.