Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e24ca91d308d503fa3711b0ff3b4c40e0d971e72bbc8012448c0ece02328a69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $358,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 386 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 69c | 26,103$17,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,120.94 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 64c | 25,893$16,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,559.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 21c | 15,562$3,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,318.71 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 51c | 14,606$7,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,141.21 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 39c | 10,712$4,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,206.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 68c | 10,427$7,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,342.82 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 58c | 8,239$4,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.14 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 40c | 8,166$3,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,901.89 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 25c | 4,924$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,686.44 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 13c | 4,552$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,892$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.71 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,783$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 54c | 3,743$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.19 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…897ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,208$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 77c | 2,931$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 13c | 2,905$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.02 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked Yes | 67c | 2,722$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked No | 51c | 2,535$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 15c | 2,409$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.42 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes | 66c | 2,293$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,244$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,224$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 44c | 2,194$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.51 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 58c | 2,183$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.07 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 79c | 2,050$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.3 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 2,021$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.95 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 1,976$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.34 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…7884backed Yes | 10c | 1,678$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 19c | 1,664$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.04 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 79c | 1,608$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 26c | 1,556$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.54 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,496$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 63c | 1,448$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 42c | 1,442$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.45 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 29c | 1,427$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 73c | 1,413$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.95 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 54c | 1,388$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.62 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 61c | 1,301$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.79 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,273$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 62c | 1,259$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 49c | 1,252$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.78 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…24b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 24c | 1,159$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.96 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.77 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 32c | 1,080$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.32 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 15c | 1,066$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,049$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed No | 20c | 1,041$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +391.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 1,003$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.92 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…7005backed No | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +181%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…51d0backed No | 51c | 997.79$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes | 52c | 934.69$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 7c | 914.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…cf45backed No | 21c | 896.68$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 27c | 882.35$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.55 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 850.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 837.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 72c | 826.81$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.14 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 24c | 800$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 48c | 800$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.82 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 25c | 800$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.31 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 39c | 775.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 760$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.4 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 55c | 750.35$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.66 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…cc33backed Yes | 79c | 740$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d70…02c5backed Yes | 51c | 731.96$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked Yes | 53c | 730.74$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 21c | 720.22$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.84 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 706.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes | 80c | 699.63$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…726bbacked Yes | 12c | 689.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…d7ebbacked Yes | 79c | 673.07$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 32c | 669.03$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 26c | 664.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.56 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 69c | 650$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked No | 21c | 648$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.19 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 21c | 642.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.83 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…5ca2backed Yes | 79c | 641.92$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.24 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 56c | 639.86$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.87 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 54c | 633.26$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.94 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed No | 47c | 632.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 51c | 611.26$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.52 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 79c | 600.41$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 598$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed No | 20c | 590$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 579.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 79c | 575.22$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 45c | 569.66$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 54c | 560$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 14c | 554.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…e57ebacked No | 36c | 550.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.