TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,486 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes18c3,981$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.613228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes29c3,881$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.962240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No67c3,296$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes25c3,108$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.144630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes34c3,047$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.591233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes27c2,302$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.1811839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No76c2,103$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.94841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes16c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33015029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes27c1,997$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.562520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No67c1,928$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.6714456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8b…a211backed Yes17c1,874$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.467848.7%38 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c1,835$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.6526835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No60c1,576$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.762552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No48c1,491$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.338055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes32c1,489$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.781811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes33c1,445$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.677462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No71c1,265$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.847360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes31c1,192$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c1,129$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.1411840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No66c1,055$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.272748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes23c1,025$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No80c1,014$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.86647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9da4…7403backed Yes32c919.73$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.55333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Yes45c828.15$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3c…e797backed No75c795.73$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.73862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85cb…6603backed Yes55c725.78$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.23740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes39c702.99$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.554348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes24c701.46$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.822623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes29c689.73$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.595743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96d3…df67backed No70c681.07$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.071861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes33c639.06$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.866622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7c1…675ebacked No72c628.71$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.92454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes30c573.49$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.288224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No49c569.68$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90b7…0b0dbacked No63c566.7$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.97638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No77c558.87$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.746357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes38c549.98$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.494040%16 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa59a…dd69backed Yes19c547.55$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No78c538.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.58825%2 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-66.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes30c516$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.55757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed No70c510.42$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.984535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed No54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14026238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes21c480.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.893636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dcc…d87cbacked No64c467.7$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.241338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b59…a91fbacked Yes37c463.09$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab4…a62dbacked No66c452.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.182055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No74c450$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1174358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed No79c444.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…3098backed No78c431.24$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.141070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes23c422.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2c…88cabacked No71c359.11$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.141485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0459…203cbacked No79c349.99$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes31c347.35$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.088639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No69c345.21$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5144…7941backed Yes44c337.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e23…8579backed No56c334.23$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.061844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ea…1f05backed No56c325.8$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.351580%12 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+73.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes44c325.8$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.643743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed No51c301.34$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.844057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c300.23$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…1893backed Yes27c300.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.55162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d77…9cedbacked No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes30c299.87$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.811225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fcf…4c67backed Yes47c282$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.541241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes14c278.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.043040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39a…c96cbacked Yes29c276.76$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes29c273.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.223351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f58…129abacked Yes22c273.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No75c265.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.389475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5bb…bdb8backed No67c263.61$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.746142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes8c262.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.756341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes39c250.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8110343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed No58c250.01$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…c2ddbacked No47c248.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.961060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes21c245$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4514750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c243.24$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c218.6$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.167243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8686…1caabacked No73c205.89$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes22c205.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.17933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes48c205$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.151827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes49c204.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes29c199.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…d22abacked Yes51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No77c195.3$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.31631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No54c186.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4214150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed Yes55c181.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No68c177$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.825318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4422…96f4backed No51c166.6$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes31c160.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2611645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No76c159.54$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.29650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes44c155.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.933545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab4…e073backed No75c147.17$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.116752.2%35 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+61.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed Yes26c144.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.736640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No65c135.43$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.666675.8%50 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes21c130$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.63652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfccd…2b20backed No66c126.62$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.421450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.