Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec3e78b69a90a185e42961bd0a0de454a2d3f1f48ac69a8cca43df739ff0abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 18c | 3,981$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 29c | 3,881$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 67c | 3,296$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.6 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 25c | 3,108$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.14 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,047$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 27c | 2,302$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.18 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 76c | 2,103$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,997$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.56 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 67c | 1,928$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.67 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 17c | 1,874$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 1,835$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.65 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 60c | 1,576$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 48c | 1,491$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.33 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 32c | 1,489$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 33c | 1,445$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.67 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 71c | 1,265$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.84 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 31c | 1,192$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.84 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,129$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.14 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 66c | 1,055$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,025$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.45 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 1,014$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da4…7403backed Yes | 32c | 919.73$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Yes | 45c | 828.15$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…e797backed No | 75c | 795.73$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 55c | 725.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.2 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 39c | 702.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.55 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 24c | 701.46$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 29c | 689.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed No | 70c | 681.07$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 33c | 639.06$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 72c | 628.71$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 30c | 573.49$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 49c | 569.68$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 63c | 566.7$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.9 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 77c | 558.87$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 38c | 549.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.49 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed Yes | 19c | 547.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 78c | 538.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 30c | 516$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed No | 70c | 510.42$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed No | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 21c | 480.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 64c | 467.7$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…a91fbacked Yes | 37c | 463.09$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked No | 66c | 452.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 74c | 450$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 79c | 444.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…3098backed No | 78c | 431.24$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 23c | 422.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 71c | 359.11$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…203cbacked No | 79c | 349.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 31c | 347.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 69c | 345.21$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…7941backed Yes | 44c | 337.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e23…8579backed No | 56c | 334.23$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…1f05backed No | 56c | 325.8$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.35 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 44c | 325.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 51c | 301.34$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 300.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 27c | 300.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…9cedbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 299.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcf…4c67backed Yes | 47c | 282$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 14c | 278.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…c96cbacked Yes | 29c | 276.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 29c | 273.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked Yes | 22c | 273.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 75c | 265.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 67c | 263.61$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 8c | 262.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 39c | 250.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 58c | 250.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 47c | 248.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 21c | 245$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 243.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 218.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…1caabacked No | 73c | 205.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 22c | 205.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 48c | 205$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 49c | 204.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…4e63backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…d22abacked Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 195.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 54c | 186.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 55c | 181.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 68c | 177$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed No | 51c | 166.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 31c | 160.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 76c | 159.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 44c | 155.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 75c | 147.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 26c | 144.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 135.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…2b20backed No | 66c | 126.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.