Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe314f1469efc2e828d95eba4602d1e1cc3e2ca10f315e92ca8c31b29977d3257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 6c | 3,400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 4c | 2,596$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 11c | 1,783$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 9c | 600.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9e…5e69backed Yes | 17c | 597.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 374.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 10c | 345.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 8c | 300.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 7c | 267.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 4c | 267$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 13c | 211$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 140.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…190abacked Yes | 12c | 129.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 10c | 112.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…942dbacked Yes | 10c | 95.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 59.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x275a…e41cbacked No | 77c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.