TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fe7…4f20backed No70c7,465$5,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.4823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x277f…ed32backed Yes21c7,268$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.251717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-64.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5d41…271abacked Yes29c2,069$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2abc…8163backed Yes28c1,974$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes29c1,940$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.1114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c1,890$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes15c1,877$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.994040%16 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes5c1,819$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1215125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes33c1,736$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No68c1,659$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.486540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes12c1,502$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5214750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c1,138$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4525528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes4c1,043$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.483517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes36c1,035$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37514147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes16c999.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9910625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes3c999.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.192520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c937.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7113910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes25c905$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.146913%9 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No72c831.79$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.739360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4391…61d8backed Yes22c766.97$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes18c744.49$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8815029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c725.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3739429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No75c646.01$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.0110241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes19c624.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3511322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed Yes22c593.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.84535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes20c579.96$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11513622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes24c548.13$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…c72fbacked Yes21c506.54$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c487.37$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes22c447.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.032722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fca…7477backed No72c382$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.263161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Yes20c367.1$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.221643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes27c343.52$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.125143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No70c279.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No67c251$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1f7…78febacked Yes22c244.64$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes17c234.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1113429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb01d…6866backed Yes20c205$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413423.5%8 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed No70c200$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46a1…6cdebacked Yes29c190$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0724…eb68backed No74c185.3$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.181070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes20c183.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7814920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.29257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071c…489dbacked No76c157.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8617…e460backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.856650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x398c…2172backed Yes18c149.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0435…a10ebacked Yes34c149.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d9…d32abacked No78c130.68$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.751172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd576…ca8dbacked No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.212766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No78c118.94$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1715855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No75c105.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.22378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdaa…0b9cbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeede…8a73backed Yes13c94.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.391650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No78c94.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.84628.3%13 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-52.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes21c92.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.313943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa909…1c77backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcd…1943backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-65%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72ec…9a6bbacked Yes29c67.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524a…0441backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd369…0e68backed Yes30c53.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1711542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44e…46a2backed Yes31c48.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1510343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eef…0e99backed No57c44.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+50.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f9…0113backed No74c43.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.24450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.46050%30 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No69c34.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.675479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x212c…8e4abacked No80c32.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27a8…71f1backed Yes32c31.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80c…1f92backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ae…61edbacked No73c27.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.342948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb9e…11d4backed No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-46.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd697…7280backed No80c26.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No74c24.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.396159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.68733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8e…391fbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…204ebacked No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.23988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick58cpaid+60.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11c0…4273backed No65c16.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No73c16.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.454037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x275a…e41cbacked No72c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.