Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59c26d8eefea4029f991dd8ec94bb742762da267bb074faacbdc86c63eca1df2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $313,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 53c | 24,700$13,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,048.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 48c | 22,481$10,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,780.53 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 4c | 17,300$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 51c | 15,842$8,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,823.41 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 55c | 10,605$5,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,726.59 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 47c | 7,526$3,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.72 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 41c | 7,259$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 61c | 5,565$3,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,418.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 21c | 5,234$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.05 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 52c | 4,709$2,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.27 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 47c | 4,600$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.83 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 33c | 4,500$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.94 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 52c | 4,460$2,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.6 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 71c | 4,230$2,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.96 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 51c | 4,038$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.6 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 3,871$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.6 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,500$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…f7a8backed Yes | 21c | 3,388$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 45c | 2,792$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.08 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed No | 70c | 2,779$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 55c | 2,742$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 47c | 2,740$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.78 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 79c | 2,609$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.58 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 51c | 2,550$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,288$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.57 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…dd69backed No | 57c | 2,117$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.07 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…3900backed No | 70c | 2,110$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 67c | 2,107$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.32 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.97 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 64c | 1,989$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.72 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…ed0dbacked No | 78c | 1,919$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…0aa7backed Yes | 51c | 1,903$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 46c | 1,889$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.41 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 55c | 1,814$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.99 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,574$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.42 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 55c | 1,555$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked No | 70c | 1,495$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 47c | 1,450$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 56c | 1,420$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.15 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 73c | 1,358$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…d7ebbacked Yes | 49c | 1,354$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 1,341$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.11 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 46c | 1,319$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.41 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed Yes | 54c | 1,253$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 47c | 1,250$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed Yes | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,184$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 53c | 1,181$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.78 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 1,148$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.69 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 51c | 1,084$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 68c | 1,028$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.71 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked Yes | 51c | 999.98$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 71c | 992.97$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 59c | 945.5$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked No | 56c | 889.68$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.68 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…36b8backed Yes | 55c | 886.18$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 45c | 865.92$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7770backed Yes | 66c | 832.05$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 827.78$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.25 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 59c | 748.48$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.22 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked No | 46c | 738.74$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.22 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 722.54$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.87 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…b0dabacked Yes | 53c | 708.34$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 64c | 669$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.24 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…3603backed No | 68c | 659.93$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 30c | 650$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…3005backed No | 70c | 644.48$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 644.18$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.89 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 625.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…2e36backed No | 62c | 610.05$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 61c | 606.32$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…0266backed Yes | 58c | 589.99$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 52c | 581.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…f10fbacked Yes | 57c | 576.81$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa968…aa45backed Yes | 58c | 573.03$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…3a7dbacked No | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5820…83f8backed Yes | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Yes | 16c | 558.56$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e1…311cbacked Yes | 59c | 555.51$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…3570backed No | 55c | 545.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 63c | 540.18$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.51 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…1092backed Yes | 44c | 535.46$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 49c | 529.99$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…e0b0backed No | 58c | 513.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 44c | 504.66$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.66 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…2d9fbacked Yes | 51c | 500$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked No | 47c | 500$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 63c | 498.43$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bdaebacked No | 64c | 496.03$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 46c | 479.13$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 72c | 471.29$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…e349backed Yes | 52c | 470.46$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 49c | 470$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 54c | 467.15$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…da21backed Yes | 37c | 465.68$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.