TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$292,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes53c24,700$13,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,048.481435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No48c22,481$10,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,780.5324258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes4c17,300$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6417736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No51c15,842$8,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,823.418549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No55c10,605$5,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,726.5914355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No47c7,526$3,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,012.728055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes41c7,259$2,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,982.8650%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes61c5,565$3,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,418.611233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes21c5,234$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.0513230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes32c5,000$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-76.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No52c4,709$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.2712547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No47c4,600$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.8314750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes33c4,500$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9423435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No52c4,460$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.635341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No71c4,230$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.967843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed No51c4,038$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.62661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes30c3,871$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes5c3,500$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4915217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes21c3,388$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+107.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed Yes47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4101625%4 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No45c2,792$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.0815451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0026…aef7backed No70c2,779$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.79540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8616…c877backed No55c2,742$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.521241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd116…be32backed No47c2,740$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.782060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No79c2,609$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.583354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes51c2,550$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.981442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+93.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes20c2,288$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.579932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa59a…dd69backed No57c2,117$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.071758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf643…3900backed No70c2,110$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick58cpaid+49.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No67c2,107$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.324841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1007247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.972665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+27.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No64c1,989$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.726450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddc…ed0dbacked No78c1,919$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…0aa7backed Yes51c1,903$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes46c1,889$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.4113622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3ce…f829backed No55c1,814$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.991782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+124.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes37c1,574$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.422520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No55c1,555$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7059360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked No70c1,495$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes47c1,450$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.53461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes56c1,420$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.156647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No73c1,358$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.73865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x297a…d7ebbacked Yes49c1,354$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6651070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes48c1,341$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.1130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba5e…6c40backed No46c1,319$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.412060%12 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+58.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdc75…a292backed Yes54c1,253$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed No47c1,250$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…ff23backed Yes50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-77.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,184$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No53c1,181$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.789962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c1,148$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6939429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes51c1,084$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.081323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No68c1,028$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.715563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick47cpaid-80.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xeac2…176dbacked Yes51c999.98$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No71c992.97$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.083943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No59c945.5$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.21250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked No56c889.68$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.685143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc7…36b8backed Yes55c886.18$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.57922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes45c865.92$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38913429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…7770backed Yes66c832.05$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c827.78$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2541736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No59c748.48$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.2211647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No46c738.74$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.223666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes32c722.54$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8717232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b10…b0dabacked Yes53c708.34$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No64c669$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.247949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9849…3603backed No68c659.93$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.57944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes30c650$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2310625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1800…3005backed No70c644.48$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No46c644.18$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8925528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes36c625.98$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4111741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd608…2e36backed No62c610.05$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.261361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No61c606.32$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2373545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88fd…750ebacked Yes48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.582536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes58c589.99$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.09922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Yes52c581.16$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf75…f10fbacked Yes57c576.81$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa968…aa45backed Yes58c573.03$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f15…3a7dbacked No70c571.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5820…83f8backed Yes53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…28f4backed Yes16c558.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e1…311cbacked Yes59c555.51$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…3570backed No55c545.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes63c540.18$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.513756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f8…1092backed Yes44c535.46$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes49c529.99$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.37727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1e…e0b0backed No58c513.15$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+51.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed No44c504.66$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.664057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked Yes51c500$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.941020%2 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-62.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked No47c500$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2672634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No63c498.43$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.341181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked No64c496.03$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.571838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed Yes46c479.13$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.747360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No72c471.29$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.575461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x798b…e349backed Yes52c470.46$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes49c470$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.14936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes54c467.15$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.312748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6527…da21backed Yes37c465.68$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.