Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724d7eaffc5b26082105d7a9aebd6b729fe0e87368b8d7e5ea7a9926b3077ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,194,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,247,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,194,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 620 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 446,866$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 17c | 21,691$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,611.74 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 29c | 18,214$5,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,336.05 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 76c | 17,728$13,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,205.93 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…a9c2backed Yes | 7c | 15,407$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 37c | 15,243$5,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,611.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 73c | 12,879$9,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,477.17 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 70c | 12,256$8,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.58 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 77c | 12,096$9,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.78 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4e…818abacked Yes | 34c | 11,277$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…23babacked Yes | 11c | 10,980$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 20c | 10,591$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.13 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 4c | 9,773$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed Yes | 10c | 9,631$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.24 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 78c | 8,165$6,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.67 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 12c | 6,719$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 3c | 6,321$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 2c | 5,547$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 47c | 5,541$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.38 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,901$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 59c | 4,865$2,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.36 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,483$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…461dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,185$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 34c | 4,107$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.61 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5160…b803backed Yes | 1c | 4,010$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 74c | 3,808$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.5 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed Yes | 14c | 3,642$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,447$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.61 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…0fc7backed Yes | 22c | 3,427$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.17 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 3,268$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.31 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 19c | 3,232$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 74c | 3,230$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.78 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…53b3backed Yes | 3c | 3,200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 30c | 3,151$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.29 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 79c | 3,123$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.88 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…c2ddbacked Yes | 2c | 3,055$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked No | 53c | 3,025$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 13c | 2,922$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.16 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 2,916$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.06 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 18c | 2,872$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.74 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 73c | 2,833$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.7 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 78c | 2,788$2,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.24 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a64…efd5backed Yes | 8c | 2,658$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.51 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,491$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.02 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 32c | 2,481$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0188backed Yes | 1c | 2,452$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 40c | 2,426$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.73 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb11…73f2backed Yes | 4c | 2,426$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 7c | 2,371$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.54 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81a…8a17backed Yes | 21c | 2,296$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd7…1a8dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 4c | 2,200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 15c | 2,175$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.56 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf611…9c30backed Yes | 3c | 2,150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 22c | 2,117$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…03a3backed Yes | 3c | 2,025$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…d94dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,887$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 33c | 1,830$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.32 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…324dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,822$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 18c | 1,778$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x336c…d32cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,729$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…bddcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,605$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…78e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 11c | 1,586$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…3c26backed Yes | 6c | 1,559$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 1,550$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.21 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 1,487$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.48 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,449$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 4c | 1,438$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…a21dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…3be1backed Yes | 43c | 1,200$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 45c | 1,199$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.58 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 26c | 1,169$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 47c | 1,131$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.38 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,130$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.07 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 57c | 1,123$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.52 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 1,076$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 24c | 1,069$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes | 18c | 1,065$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 23c | 1,050$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.63 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 59c | 1,041$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 40c | 1,031$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 72c | 1,027$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…0a84backed Yes | 47c | 1,022$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…1515backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…5c8bbacked No | 75c | 1,000$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3732…43acbacked No | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4f…db17backed Yes | 67c | 999.99$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a2…29cabacked Yes | 2c | 994.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…5bf0backed Yes | 31c | 969.95$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…754fbacked Yes | 31c | 956.65$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 59c | 949$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.09 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 41c | 949$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.09 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe52…c74cbacked Yes | 22c | 927.18$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed No | 78c | 924.6$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 75c | 921.84$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…068dbacked Yes | 10c | 912.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.