TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629f…6babbacked Yes1c6,036$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.12180%0 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc82d…c9b7backed Yes16c1,655$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No73c1,304$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.471457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes9c1,172$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7644224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92e2…1a7cbacked Yes16c1,007$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.911741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+268%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10e1…aa05backed Yes6c999.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.324017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c866.83$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.211,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes17c860$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.22737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes27c672$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.12556%14 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+53.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72e0…e61bbacked Yes18c647.89$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6f…6487backed Yes27c632$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes14c621.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes2c558.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.164015%6 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+148%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea4f…80b5backed Yes13c538$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf16b…6a8bbacked Yes11c527$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98e…a597backed Yes17c517.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.161811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-71.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc05f…ea07backed Yes10c486$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4634…0e71backed Yes12c436$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf323…b5f5backed Yes11c426$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+82.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed No80c406$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.21553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes20c406$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7933…bff2backed Yes17c377$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0352…5a54backed Yes13c370$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa133…184fbacked Yes15c367.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce5…6d01backed Yes12c362$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes11c336.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.812023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4ae…e1c7backed Yes13c328$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fb…d8b6backed Yes13c328$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes32c318.2$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.062339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c315.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2758927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ab…99e3backed Yes13c314$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb259…722dbacked Yes14c292$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…ca39backed Yes14c292$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f1…d56bbacked Yes11c284.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+185.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x632e…6bbabacked Yes13c271$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3c…54a8backed Yes9c246.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick20cpaid+174.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x000b…2bd8backed Yes12c243$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a61…7ba7backed Yes10c243$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db2…5c06backed Yes12c243$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec1…9310backed Yes14c224$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+132.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33ca…b986backed Yes14c224$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…9618backed Yes13c222$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f2…1108backed Yes14c218$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…4a80backed Yes14c218$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x472c…25babacked Yes7c216.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…3dd8backed Yes14c209$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1684…2e6cbacked Yes14c205$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5626…68eebacked Yes25c199.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9205…4193backed Yes9c194$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9d…8bfcbacked Yes12c194$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes9c191.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf2…2faabacked Yes14c185$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc182…56e8backed Yes14c185$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d8…e4c4backed Yes15c179$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes7c173.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.07400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2980…6ad5backed Yes15c166$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes32c164.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3121831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x082a…d0b0backed Yes17c162$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…0fd2backed Yes17c162$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5e…f6e0backed Yes14c160$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e0…4c38backed Yes14c159$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf0…3cccbacked Yes13c159$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108c…845cbacked Yes14c159$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf9e…1fdfbacked Yes14c157$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3d…12d0backed Yes14c151$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c65…6c47backed Yes14c151$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe362…0f0fbacked Yes14c147$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes16c137.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4813255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6afe…c610backed Yes14c130$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681e…b12bbacked Yes14c130$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe089…e7bbbacked Yes14c124$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c3…1c95backed Yes11c124$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf05…7998backed Yes11c121$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…4f08backed Yes11c119$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef10…17e4backed Yes14c111$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6159…a9cbbacked Yes14c97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7d…c142backed Yes14c97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa521…a7c8backed Yes11c97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c2…db1bbacked Yes11c97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d3…f362backed Yes22c93.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41b…2771backed Yes16c89.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x632c…8842backed Yes13c88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb16…196abacked Yes23c87.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No79c85.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3124759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes13c75.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc748…a1f8backed Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd57…8c8ebacked Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes17c72.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0111452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1575…b309backed Yes45c66.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes16c65.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.182540%10 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4401…aea5backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73313.2%1 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-94%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes27c59.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No79c55.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.689981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed No76c52.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.432236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7581…1443backed No79c50.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c50.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No70c29.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.978482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No49c25.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.831199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e7…d3a5backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.54072.5%29 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.