TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,664 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes6c1,976$112 inLost-$111.86588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes4c1,116$40 inLost-$4013321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11fd…f6b4backed Yes6c853.4$50 inLost-$502055%11 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes4c754.51$31 inLost-$31.32213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c679$31 inLost-$31.391,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c585.44$18 inLost-$18.442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0502…54c6backed Yes5c549.99$27 inLost-$26.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c410.28$17 inLost-$16.842217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce9…06b4backed Yes4c400$15 inLost-$14.82015%3 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c288.81$21 inLost-$21.0736626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c218.45$14 inLost-$14.0850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed No61c75$46 inWon+$29.254734%16 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddc…c226backed Yes39c75$29 inLost-$29.251346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.