TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,957
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,957 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xffd8…6d54backed No2c3,500$70 inLost-$704015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No4c1,800$63 inLost-$633810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No8c1,042$83 inLost-$83.335961%36 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No4c1,000$36 inLost-$364330.2%13 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+107.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No11c250$28 inLost-$27.54928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked No11c150$17 inLost-$16.51915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed No23c140$32 inLost-$32.29930.3%30 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No26c99.99$26 inLost-$2685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No31c80$25 inLost-$24.812239.3%48 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No23c64.93$15 inLost-$14.9336634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2806…05ddbacked No28c40$11 inLost-$11.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.