Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc763058db53c7f43f8248584ac188526527cbfb6cb8ff61ed3fd2db2c088809a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,201$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 5,062$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.84 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 4,799$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 4c | 4,060$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce9…06b4backed Yes | 10c | 3,693$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 2c | 3,038$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 12c | 2,947$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.07 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…48e4backed Yes | 9c | 2,682$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,035$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.35 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,772$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…e64bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,423$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,317$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 33c | 1,145$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.12 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,015$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…edbebacked Yes | 4c | 940$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b4…fd80backed Yes | 6c | 890.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 872.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 823.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 711.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebd…7ffebacked Yes | 7c | 666.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 598.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 545.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 531.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…0446backed Yes | 2c | 468$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…a11dbacked Yes | 4c | 445.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…fcc9backed Yes | 3c | 403$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…caffbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 11c | 389.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 47c | 385.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.07 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 374.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…4bafbacked Yes | 3c | 353$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 316.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb52…460abacked Yes | 13c | 309.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +89%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 279.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…1120backed Yes | 4c | 262.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 10c | 214.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 206.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…da32backed Yes | 49c | 204.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 182$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc3…b861backed Yes | 52c | 153.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 72c | 130.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 124.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 11c | 121.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…c675backed Yes | 17c | 118.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…ca54backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…149bbacked No | 66c | 84.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 70.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 55.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…5568backed Yes | 43c | 37.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…f955backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…e387backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.