TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$204,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,021 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8276…48e4backed No0c50,000$50 inLost-$50128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9125…bf41backed No0c35,005$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcea…d54ebacked No0c17,000$17 inLost-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe22c…fd66backed No0c16,000$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b0…8468backed No0c10,000$10 inLost-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x608a…4f33backed No0c6,067$11 inLost-$11.4740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…68e7backed No0c4,758$22 inLost-$22.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No2c738.53$14 inLost-$13.647817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No1c694.58$10 inLost-$10.17400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No2c490.99$12 inLost-$12.0915434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No15c341$51 inLost-$50.954027.5%11 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No4c326.56$13 inLost-$13.1628734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No12c321.85$40 inLost-$4028827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a17…70c6backed No5c306.15$15 inLost-$14.633625%9 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa9f…7e5dbacked No14c195$26 inLost-$26.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.