TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$262,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb886…81b3backed Yes4c20,849$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.114039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5160…b803backed Yes0c12,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x364f…1515backed Yes19c8,694$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99f…8742backed Yes18c8,521$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce9…06b4backed Yes26c6,792$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.742015%3 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No52c5,337$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.0242818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes14c4,593$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.056013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e57…53b3backed Yes1c3,567$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d3…82e1backed No43c3,081$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.753551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked Yes1c2,918$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2780%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3df…03a3backed Yes1c2,907$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No67c2,511$1,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.968744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45dc…e94dbacked Yes2c2,505$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Yes35c2,311$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.531758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick40cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae52…405cbacked Yes20c2,242$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.412524%6 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2549…74f7backed No78c2,040$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.071369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes49c1,878$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.221136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed No50c1,873$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.52060%12 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+131.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed Yes55c1,816$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c1,744$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x165e…d94dbacked Yes21c1,698$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6870%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x053b…f9b1backed Yes10c1,527$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…af68backed Yes21c1,500$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3227428.4%21 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc935…bad8backed Yes7c1,468$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No51c1,433$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.171533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes26c1,342$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35213246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes6c1,338$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7844224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes20c1,250$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.967817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629f…6babbacked Yes2c1,242$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31180%0 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81a…8a17backed Yes24c1,178$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.721040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-46.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x566a…0d19backed Yes25c1,097$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.612516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes10c1,092$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.166045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9a38backed Yes15c1,039$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3732…43acbacked No63c999.99$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+76%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed Yes50c990$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+84.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf44d…cc17backed Yes76c982.44$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes50c977$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.52339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a3…ea15backed No78c974.91$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.232445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes17c920$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.42035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No45c920$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5061947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No45c896$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.82454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0cb…5b30backed Yes1c800.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+143.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes60c789.75$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.5820617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes26c778.31$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.022339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c765.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.934195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes29c761.02$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9513321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd512…089bbacked Yes22c744.8$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.781233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes11c737.19$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8135921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No40c733.48$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.7521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes2c733.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes24c732.21$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.77012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes25c647.09$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4158927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1e…a11dbacked Yes23c643.79$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes79c636.18$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008129.6%24 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No16c634.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.6728734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0502…54c6backed No63c632.56$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.391346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked No45c632$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.62744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…63b6backed Yes55c632$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked No20c615.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.534721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…0ce1backed Yes38c609.81$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-74.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No46c599.97$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.337548%36 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6db…edbebacked Yes9c592.33$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.312330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Yes50c589$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d1…2fddbacked Yes34c587.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No77c579.63$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.962657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d25…5529backed Yes17c578.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef45…666fbacked Yes17c553.52$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.12733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+77.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes3c550$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1933741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffb6…e64bbacked Yes51c532.81$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.851921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x10bc…0451backed Yes33c527$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.911154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c518.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0510913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec9…b7c0backed Yes19c518$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No51c514.99$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.998749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes43c500.69$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.828142%34 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe23c…4391backed Yes77c491.86$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.071154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No74c471.44$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.717038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xde27…ea25backed Yes17c469.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c5…bdacbacked Yes18c466.45$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes18c465.54$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0931728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes26c461.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3111323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe512…43d1backed No22c454.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.55825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No51c445$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26f1…d56bbacked Yes62c435.48$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick19cpaid+185.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x636c…ea28backed No67c433$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No50c429$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a96…69debacked Yes24c420.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003647.2%17 W · 19 L+5.7wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No74c419.25$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes80c417.06$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.9730635.9%110 W · 196 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e8…8676backed Yes5c412.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-36.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00c2…1be5backed No67c409$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3c…54a8backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881546.7%7 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick20cpaid+174.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes16c399.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8523…f005backed No36c395.58$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62b6…5de0backed No77c391.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes38c380$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1463652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa4…3409backed Yes45c376.55$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.19633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+190%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No54c376.03$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.534843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…b53bbacked Yes26c375.78$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No74c375.19$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0729254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked Yes40c374.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.