TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,238 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes15c1,681$245 inLost-$245.237123.9%17 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed Yes3c1,217$34 inLost-$34.25263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-93.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$5013138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Yes3c930$28 inLost-$282213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce9…06b4backed Yes6c907.71$53 inLost-$52.62015%3 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c801.68$15 inLost-$15.235071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c762.23$22 inLost-$22.4742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c566.22$14 inLost-$14.041332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes4c434.97$18 inLost-$17.5921521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c286.04$14 inLost-$13.631,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes5c210$10 inLost-$10.1918338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes12c171.8$20 inLost-$20234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No76c54.85$42 inWon+$12.9915751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.