TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,186 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c2,120$35 inLost-$35.141332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c1,476$28 inLost-$27.511199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c1,421$30 inLost-$29.7342818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce9…06b4backed Yes4c1,200$47 inLost-$47.232015%3 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a5…2f72backed Yes2c1,075$19 inLost-$18.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6868…e457backed Yes4c958.18$35 inLost-$34.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+669.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x396c…f8aabacked Yes3c899.99$28 inLost-$28250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84e1…61d0backed Yes3c748.44$20 inLost-$202512%3 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+133.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c601.38$35 inLost-$3536626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f9…a7b1backed Yes3c457.04$15 inLost-$15825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+258.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes3c443.27$12 inLost-$11.817817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c390.89$13 inLost-$13.091,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes3c344.54$11 inLost-$11.1521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes8c263.33$20 inLost-$20234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes6c200$12 inLost-$11.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes10c120$12 inLost-$126615.2%10 W · 56 L-6.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bd9…d049backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked No75c85.33$64 inWon+$21.3315751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes22c75$17 inLost-$16.6810321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a0…5568backed No77c16.66$13 inWon+$3.831957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.