Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf809512818a77fa5e24d2dae493e719bce8b29874a6c5028c6f87ee3e89188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 5,135$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.51 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 4,440$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.47 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 14c | 2,878$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce9…06b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,895$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,656$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 6c | 1,627$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 11cpaid | +811.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed No | 66c | 1,500$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.05 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 75c | 1,380$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.34 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,360$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,296$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,069$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 7c | 1,012$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 24c | 981.57$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.48 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 13c | 980.92$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 9c | 773.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…8e56backed Yes | 17c | 745.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 553.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 77c | 537$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 23c | 537$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…b5b5backed Yes | 19c | 530.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865e…e5cebacked Yes | 31c | 517.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 14c | 505.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…a7b1backed Yes | 5c | 462.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +258.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 383$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 68c | 380.12$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…c5c1backed Yes | 6c | 360$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac2…c978backed Yes | 6c | 358$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 21c | 323.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 290.21$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c1…70d7backed No | 54c | 277.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 36c | 275.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 20c | 271.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 271.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 266.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 264.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 17c | 239.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 239.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…3767backed Yes | 5c | 231$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 227.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…bf2dbacked Yes | 5c | 204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 80c | 201.95$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…89e9backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 22c | 198.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 56c | 182.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 136.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 31c | 134.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 120.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 12c | 119.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed No | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 16c | 92.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…31a4backed No | 63c | 65.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7190…00e7backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21f…7093backed No | 75c | 43.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 76c | 40.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84a…e211backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed No | 62c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 73c | 23.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd6…6ec2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…89f6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…7c2fbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.