Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f19d9353a050b75146deab85790798008f71b699232e5e237e2f46d2cb5dc2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,113,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,198,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,113,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f1…a6a0backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b8…48e0backed No | 0c | 105,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…6342backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…7f60backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…80acbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…0adebacked No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…5350backed No | 0c | 69,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd81…af34backed No | 0c | 56,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…09a7backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf29…97b8backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…cdf9backed No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…fde0backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e02ebacked No | 0c | 32,582$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed No | 0c | 26,940$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d59…2cd7backed No | 0c | 26,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…d590backed No | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…bb07backed No | 0c | 20,720$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 55c | 17,874$9,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,091.87 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 62c | 16,497$10,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,285.57 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…0806backed No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3021…a995backed No | 0c | 15,720$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b81…6f01backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 40c | 14,795$5,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,917.85 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e1…66c6backed No | 0c | 13,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111d…532abacked No | 0c | 11,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 41c | 10,804$4,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,448.41 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 25c | 10,249$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.74 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…c706backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…3943backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805d…0706backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…c20bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +200.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…43d0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…fa53backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…e40bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0207…65c0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 34c | 9,872$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,476.14 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked Yes | 70c | 8,931$6,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 52c | 7,000$3,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,639.08 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 55c | 6,322$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.89 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 37c | 5,476$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 43c | 5,162$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.21 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 36c | 4,398$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.33 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 78c | 4,050$3,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.13 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…1a2ebacked No | 1c | 4,042$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 55c | 4,030$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.5 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…1480backed No | 52c | 4,000$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7ec8backed Yes | 44c | 3,764$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 60c | 3,638$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.49 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 47c | 3,282$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.76 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…c61abacked Yes | 46c | 3,281$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,068$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.76 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 47c | 3,000$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.64 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 59c | 2,800$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.99 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…9bf5backed Yes | 49c | 2,776$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 60c | 2,725$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.85 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 55c | 2,427$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.07 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 57c | 2,424$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 58c | 2,403$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.47 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce9…06b4backed Yes | 45c | 2,375$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.78 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,294$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.54 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…dd0fbacked No | 20c | 2,201$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 67c | 2,177$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.03 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 74c | 2,129$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.1 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 22c | 2,033$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.38 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 26c | 2,000$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed No | 26c | 1,892$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.35 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 73c | 1,800$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.73 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 55c | 1,781$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.17 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…4399backed No | 65c | 1,705$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 3c | 1,700$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 56c | 1,647$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.89 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 56c | 1,633$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.48 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed No | 60c | 1,580$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 53c | 1,537$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 30c | 1,499$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.26 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 69c | 1,461$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 41c | 1,445$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.57 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 6c | 1,419$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 59c | 1,407$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.44 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 34c | 1,399$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.15 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 42c | 1,319$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.46 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…be7bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,307$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac6…92cabacked Yes | 47c | 1,267$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 69c | 1,144$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.66 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 57c | 1,134$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.14 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…04cabacked No | 55c | 1,094$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…1bdbbacked No | 55c | 1,075$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Yes | 40c | 1,070$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…287cbacked No | 2c | 1,067$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…de0cbacked No | 1c | 1,038$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,036$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.74 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 52c | 1,033$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.86 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked No | 68c | 1,001$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 70c | 1,000$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.1 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.55 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 72c | 991.06$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.