Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaab820131c1a98cba47b21aa12f1e8549827d489340f2685c6643b2966782657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,039,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,000,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,039,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f1a…a209backed No | 0c | 103,083$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…6342backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 70,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0854…7cafbacked No | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb8…c3fabacked No | 0c | 56,460$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caa…0523backed No | 1c | 55,845$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed No | 2c | 52,066$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…d35fbacked No | 0c | 51,297$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…5727backed No | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed No | 1c | 37,937$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.31 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…2ea8backed No | 0c | 27,289$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 1c | 21,076$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…8cb9backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f1…d56bbacked No | 1c | 14,500$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…9738backed No | 0c | 12,640$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…01f5backed No | 2c | 11,611$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…1a2ebacked No | 0c | 10,658$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…f2debacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…f6b4backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…3b0bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 8,290$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…dd0fbacked No | 3c | 7,280$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 4c | 5,242$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f27…8a1fbacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9336…e8f6backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0b…4cd6backed No | 6c | 4,927$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce9…06b4backed No | 2c | 4,646$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…a2debacked No | 1c | 4,555$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 2c | 3,845$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 1c | 3,521$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 3,399$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe595…bcb5backed No | 2c | 3,282$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…20ebbacked No | 19c | 3,019$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 2,505$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 6c | 2,201$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 1,921$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…e94dbacked No | 1c | 1,783$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 6c | 1,732$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed No | 18c | 1,635$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 3c | 1,585$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,483$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.56 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 4c | 1,425$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 5c | 1,369$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…7b54backed No | 3c | 1,243$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b81…b08abacked No | 9c | 1,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…c1a1backed No | 9c | 1,133$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…7246backed No | 2c | 1,035$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 4c | 930.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 79c | 888.58$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…7fb0backed No | 5c | 847.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 800.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 2c | 772.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…a4c2backed No | 2c | 764.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 726.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…5f0fbacked No | 5c | 682.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 15c | 594.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 592.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Yes | 74c | 591.65$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 24c | 587.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 544.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 11c | 499.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 3c | 467.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…3163backed No | 3c | 431.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked No | 5c | 418.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 33c | 317.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62be…9251backed No | 5c | 310.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…da32backed No | 10c | 296.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…476cbacked No | 6c | 282.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…12cabacked No | 6c | 277.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…fec1backed Yes | 69c | 271.01$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 9c | 254.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 65c | 230$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…7c9bbacked No | 17c | 228.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…11e4backed No | 33c | 228.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebd…7ffebacked Yes | 61c | 219.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 9c | 219.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 7c | 209.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29f5…fb4abacked No | 5c | 208.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 30c | 204.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 6c | 202.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…c26bbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x492d…9487backed Yes | 75c | 199.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…39dfbacked No | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 179.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked No | 21c | 176.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b1…3ef7backed No | 13c | 159.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Yes | 55c | 149.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed No | 15c | 136.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked No | 17c | 121.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 42c | 117.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…52b5backed No | 21c | 116.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 19c | 107.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 40c | 106.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…5599backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran strike Afghanistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Armenia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Georgia by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Hungary by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike India by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Poland by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike Yemen by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.