TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x80e7…d3a5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 52 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4072.5%29 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.64
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.76
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$5.16
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.76
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+26%+$10.32
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.98
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.02
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.75
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$20.07
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.5
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.76
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.97
Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.67
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$14.9
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$17.22
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.64
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.68
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
AWS service disrupted by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.5
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+211%+$211.01
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.11
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.95
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$36.01
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.56
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick75cpaid-48%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South Africabacked New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$10.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.