TailMyPicks
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,926 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes59c8,432$5,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.261353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Yes67c5,058$3,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes76c3,609$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.698321.7%18 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ad…6b75backed Yes61c1,569$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.931741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8190…b247backed Yes55c1,505$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.772138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-43.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No35c1,200$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42228434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No34c1,079$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.147618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed Yes59c994.99$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes55c987.99$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.73542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc3…e9a2backed Yes62c909.74$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.23250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes59c500$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.0116746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0102…424bbacked Yes64c471.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.43862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked No46c468$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+75%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1639…e706backed Yes54c468$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes55c443$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked No45c443$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.35944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+52.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes56c427.21$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.9715230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed Yes62c419.95$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.624175.6%31 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes59c400.13$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes62c399.99$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes79c380.86$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8423225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes60c338.17$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.393441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes75c324$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No39c286.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5326052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked No39c280$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.253336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5b…9ad2backed Yes55c270.64$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa7…87c3backed Yes62c266$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes54c260.38$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.219348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed Yes72c251.37$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.374040%16 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes49c216$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2216940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes52c214.94$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787443.2%32 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5515446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No48c199.78$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4810652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9177…318abacked Yes59c173.91$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.12875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0b…ac17backed Yes57c173.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes59c164.46$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4314834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9641…5385backed Yes65c153.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.27757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked Yes61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+52%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes78c145.72$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7216029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No37c144.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.956314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No46c134.3$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.381,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c114.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.941,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a28…600fbacked Yes60c113.16$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.02875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+48%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x252f…4f62backed Yes64c109.41$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked Yes49c106.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.571323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No45c103.7$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.748943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c100.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5195…30efbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3199017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No38c91.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2515356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f6…037cbacked Yes55c84.91$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.21850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc598…0307backed Yes56c80.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1438…6100backed Yes57c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No43c73.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.628252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes38c73.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6515650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…1371backed No38c70.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2350%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No43c70.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.247570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bef…36debacked Yes61c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x875a…baa7backed Yes71c63.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44ef…5a9bbacked Yes67c59.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a5…8c56backed Yes56c57.14$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No22c51.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.285512.7%7 W · 48 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No40c51.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.471,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No35c49.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.455232.7%17 W · 35 L-7.0wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No46c47.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7214250%71 W · 71 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes56c47.34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.693644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d9…bd0abacked Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4603…c2ebbacked Yes59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.371070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbece…141cbacked Yes50c42.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes59c42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.221457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No37c41.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2131443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes54c39.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.173036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27e9…32bbbacked Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd6…0471backed No39c37.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf814…4cadbacked Yes58c36.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c9…866ebacked Yes55c33.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No53c33.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.554647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc60…07f2backed Yes61c33.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973d…d8ffbacked Yes64c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes37c30.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42548%12 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.26per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3abc…b096backed Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a8…36cebacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+142.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7833…f126backed Yes60c29.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.77911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-81.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes48c29.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.162138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No49c28.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.753467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5e…258cbacked Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c71…2b42backed Yes62c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f3…15dabacked Yes66c24.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.24666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6c…d721backed Yes64c23.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482e…e49ebacked Yes66c22.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes61c22.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc092…5428backed No49c21.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.