World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76258f9b00e377848a0eaf02b91e7d54fa596af2ce62f446d120c8748f40fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $329,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,891 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb31…6b02backed Yes | 2c | 30,605$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 11,296$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.44 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed Yes | 2c | 10,583$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 6,903$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 4,264$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…663bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,756$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0a…a2c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,521$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaefc…97d1backed Yes | 3c | 2,489$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…9b1fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,438$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…8289backed Yes | 3c | 2,409$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…8d70backed Yes | 2c | 2,212$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 2c | 2,188$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,182$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…9ab9backed Yes | 3c | 2,113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…d1f1backed Yes | 3c | 2,027$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…c9f9backed Yes | 3c | 2,006$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe623…93fdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,914$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaf…9d23backed Yes | 3c | 1,883$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 3c | 1,833$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…783fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,812$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…becbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,790$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…72c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,761$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…ccf1backed Yes | 3c | 1,756$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…f330backed Yes | 3c | 1,736$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,704$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08b…7b66backed Yes | 3c | 1,573$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a93…7589backed Yes | 3c | 1,533$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…893bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,529$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…1d91backed Yes | 3c | 1,497$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…e6fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,470$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…05dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,443$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe56…d412backed Yes | 3c | 1,428$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…82b0backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa706…5ce2backed Yes | 3c | 1,349$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,276$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,270$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…6780backed Yes | 3c | 1,263$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,249$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…c54dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bd…6563backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…37d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…119abacked Yes | 4c | 1,094$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1559…1db6backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…2d5fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,049$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…ba7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,046$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…d8c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…8c36backed Yes | 3c | 916$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 1c | 899.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…b7e2backed Yes | 3c | 882$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…7009backed Yes | 3c | 879$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…36debacked Yes | 3c | 864.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 819.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bae…0f23backed Yes | 3c | 803$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 768.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 3c | 760.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…fb0bbacked Yes | 2c | 681$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b2…713ebacked Yes | 3c | 666$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…6097backed Yes | 3c | 651$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…9952backed Yes | 2c | 636$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…4362backed Yes | 3c | 626$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…97dfbacked Yes | 2c | 625$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…e7bdbacked Yes | 2c | 613$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…f897backed Yes | 2c | 609.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3930…f627backed Yes | 2c | 605$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…32babacked Yes | 3c | 582$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…876fbacked Yes | 2c | 581$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…66b9backed Yes | 2c | 578$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fb…2c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 566$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…0a34backed Yes | 3c | 561$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…9510backed Yes | 2c | 560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…59f5backed Yes | 3c | 531$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…ad31backed Yes | 3c | 517$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…8c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 506$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…ab97backed Yes | 3c | 497$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 476.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…a4c8backed Yes | 3c | 427$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…7f8dbacked Yes | 3c | 362$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…edadbacked Yes | 3c | 339$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 330.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?this page
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will Grüne win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.