World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f91ddd91e8fae6e9a5f95885addb8d918e2536dee9863b7426e7f73395521f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,005 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 1c | 17,729$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.86 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 57c | 7,926$4,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,397.72 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 2c | 4,741$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes | 42c | 4,028$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 30c | 1,781$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.55 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 2c | 1,683$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed Yes | 30c | 1,600$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb47…38acbacked Yes | 39c | 1,560$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6208…979dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,403$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 21c | 1,325$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.27 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 59c | 1,132$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,039$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb505…b5a8backed No | 61c | 997$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…99fabacked No | 61c | 996$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…fbeebacked No | 61c | 970$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…d50dbacked Yes | 3c | 851.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 1c | 830.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 2c | 741.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 34c | 736.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8954…704bbacked No | 60c | 715.75$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 72c | 697.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.23 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 674.98$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.78 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 62c | 651$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.38 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 38c | 644.21$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.63 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 62c | 599.98$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.11 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 594.76$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…630fbacked Yes | 2c | 590.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…1371backed Yes | 39c | 580.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 41c | 545$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 41c | 535$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 37c | 528.24$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…d721backed Yes | 3c | 526.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6100backed Yes | 37c | 511.62$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 41c | 510$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 63c | 508.84$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.27 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…f429backed Yes | 36c | 506.36$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 499.45$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.96 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked No | 59c | 458$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 436.8$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.66 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 427.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 27c | 425.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 414$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.33 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797d…4019backed Yes | 62c | 401.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 36c | 391.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 48c | 382.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 64c | 374.84$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 37c | 350$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 38c | 347$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…a893backed Yes | 19c | 346.4$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 46c | 339$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.41 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 48c | 320.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 38c | 316$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 44c | 296$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 282.35$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 33c | 280.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 250.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 21c | 236.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 61c | 190.66$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…c8d1backed No | 51c | 182.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…7451backed Yes | 46c | 169$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…d806backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…7384backed No | 64c | 157.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +447.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 36c | 151$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +52%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 56c | 148$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 56c | 148$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…c0ecbacked Yes | 40c | 146$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe1…56c4backed Yes | 37c | 138$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…2040backed Yes | 40c | 131$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…80ebbacked Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 39c | 129$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 63c | 113$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 27c | 111.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 109.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…902dbacked Yes | 39c | 108.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 37c | 108.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…3238backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…28b0backed Yes | 38c | 99.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…8d70backed Yes | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 39c | 87.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 81.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 38c | 81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7d…e1a5backed Yes | 41c | 80.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…5a9bbacked No | 72c | 76.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 76.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…fad8backed No | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Yes | 40c | 74.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 65c | 64.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6486…687abacked No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…866ebacked Yes | 44c | 63.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…7caebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will BSW win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will Grüne win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?No won
- Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.