TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,005 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes1c17,729$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8610331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked No57c7,926$4,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.723336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes2c4,741$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.483318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes42c4,028$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.621353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes30c1,781$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5528434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes2c1,683$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.453225%8 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8190…b247backed Yes30c1,600$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.592138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-43.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb47…38acbacked Yes39c1,560$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6208…979dbacked Yes39c1,403$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes21c1,325$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.275145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked No59c1,132$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked Yes44c1,039$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.281323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb505…b5a8backed No61c997$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f3…99fabacked No61c996$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2506…fbeebacked No61c970$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec38…d50dbacked Yes3c851.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.37425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-67.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed Yes1c830.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.832343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe316…1766backed Yes2c741.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes34c736.06$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.027618.4%14 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8954…704bbacked No60c715.75$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No72c697.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.234425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c674.98$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.7888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed No62c651$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.387100%7 W · 0 L+3.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+126.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes38c644.21$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfc…26aebacked Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No62c599.98$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.114175.6%31 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No65c594.76$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0518246.2%84 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e8…630fbacked Yes2c590.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb8…1371backed Yes39c580.98$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.4250%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked Yes41c545$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes41c535$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes37c528.24$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.452343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c6c…d721backed Yes3c526.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1438…6100backed Yes37c511.62$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes41c510$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.36per pick47cpaid-84.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No63c508.84$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.272759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9290…f429backed Yes36c506.36$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c499.45$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.9626052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb83e…10fcbacked No59c458$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c436.8$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.661,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes25c427.23$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.265729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes27c425.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.489613.5%13 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c414$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3310652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x797d…4019backed Yes62c401.62$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No61c400$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1587443.2%32 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes36c391.6$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.633441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes48c382.46$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No64c374.84$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.197570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes37c350$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1616029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed Yes38c347$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.86560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+159.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb2…a893backed Yes19c346.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes46c339$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.414459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes48c320.17$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.18540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed Yes38c316$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes44c296$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+75.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c282.35$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4815446.8%72 W · 82 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes33c280.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes40c250.34$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes21c236.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3f…0fa5backed No61c190.66$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.41872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dee…c8d1backed No51c182.72$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed Yes16c170$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c8…7451backed Yes46c169$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a0…d806backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+40.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x395a…7384backed No64c157.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.42771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+447.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes36c151$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.362630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked No61c150$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+52%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No56c148$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.121145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed No56c148$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.12560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec0…c0ecbacked Yes40c146$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe1…56c4backed Yes37c138$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x036d…2040backed Yes40c131$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcae…80ebbacked Yes38c130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes39c129$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.31520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No63c113$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.811127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes27c111.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.432839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes40c109.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.011,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fac…902dbacked Yes39c108.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+55.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes37c108.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.892166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+26.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb5b…0037backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391662.5%10 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362025%5 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x280e…3238backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8399017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xeb74…28b0backed Yes38c99.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb969…8d70backed Yes38c99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes39c87.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.844254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes24c81.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.424110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No38c81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.13647.2%17 W · 19 L+6.8wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+57.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8d7d…e1a5backed Yes41c80.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44ef…5a9bbacked No72c76.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c76.41$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0375…fad8backed No59c76.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked Yes40c74.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.641060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No65c64.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.962951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6486…687abacked No62c64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c9…866ebacked Yes44c63.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.77450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3abc…b096backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0b…7caebacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No61c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.35149%25 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.