Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0ec1a3c312524cca8015c0843aa1f97d0f6375be4a967e0882303b68e8d8ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,609 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 64c | 29,860$19,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,683.32 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…7994backed No | 6c | 15,888$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…7ba2backed Yes | 59c | 7,572$4,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 51c | 5,779$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.84 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 38c | 5,603$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,461.01 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 45c | 5,352$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 51c | 5,300$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.9 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 57c | 5,279$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.5 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 49c | 5,154$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 61c | 4,440$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 60c | 4,203$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.98 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,068$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 24c | 4,033$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.83 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…6704backed No | 78c | 3,857$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 64c | 3,723$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 38c | 3,377$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.92 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 40c | 3,305$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.93 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d680backed No | 5c | 3,295$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed Yes | 47c | 3,201$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 54c | 3,185$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 52c | 3,142$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.47 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 42c | 2,908$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 56c | 2,118$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…0556backed Yes | 48c | 2,070$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,035$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,017$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 59c | 2,000$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4604…444abacked No | 73c | 1,989$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 49c | 1,913$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.54 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes | 44c | 1,870$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 61c | 1,835$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…83bbbacked No | 6c | 1,723$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 53c | 1,712$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.37 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 62c | 1,708$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 48c | 1,548$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…6e45backed No | 7c | 1,543$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 78c | 1,521$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.3 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 62c | 1,500$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 62c | 1,500$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 4c | 1,439$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…facbbacked No | 61c | 1,431$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 71c | 1,420$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.27 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…9dc7backed No | 64c | 1,417$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 44c | 1,350$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.91 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 7c | 1,350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 7c | 1,330$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 41c | 1,273$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.64 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed No | 5c | 1,205$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 61c | 1,200$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.99 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 5c | 1,151$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 5c | 1,150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 55c | 1,121$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.46 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 31c | 1,080$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 60c | 1,045$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 59c | 1,041$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f3…e086backed No | 70c | 1,038$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 43c | 1,037$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.81 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…1582backed No | 62c | 1,013$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…3503backed Yes | 33c | 1,012$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.99 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…3a05backed No | 5c | 980.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 43c | 952.5$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.95 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 49c | 952.24$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…3012backed Yes | 42c | 945.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 58c | 926.39$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.79 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 57c | 923.26$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.85 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 19c | 905$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…afa3backed No | 67c | 896.65$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 865.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 54c | 852.35$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.96 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed No | 10c | 824.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 62c | 796.92$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.19 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 63c | 793$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 774.45$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 74c | 755.32$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.15 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…34aebacked Yes | 45c | 755.14$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 10c | 700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 55c | 700$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 56c | 686.67$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 50c | 632.8$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.89 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 48c | 628.85$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.85 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 58c | 600.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2063backed Yes | 44c | 599.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 59c | 598.31$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 64c | 595.27$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.16 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 68c | 594.86$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.29 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…b429backed No | 51c | 584.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 5c | 577.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 552.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ba…c903backed No | 56c | 551.91$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 9c | 550$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 36c | 549.96$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.4 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b07…b7f7backed No | 4c | 524.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 59c | 520.01$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…6ff2backed No | 60c | 500.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.