Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ce2b0b8c6fd692d60cb619e24723143a9bb5fa48ad963e795788f9ddd2f66c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,404 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 76c | 5,091$3,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.51 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 79c | 4,298$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.95 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 31c | 3,680$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.39 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…83bbbacked No | 3c | 3,069$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 19c | 2,956$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 15c | 2,849$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.89 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 4c | 2,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,060$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 31c | 2,053$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.63 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 67c | 1,722$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.4 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8216…2271backed Yes | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 30c | 1,538$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.36 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,194$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,078$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 3c | 1,025$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 816.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 63c | 799.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 3c | 736.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 18c | 655$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…a1afbacked No | 3c | 622.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 590$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 26c | 588.93$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…2c11backed No | 3c | 544.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…34aebacked Yes | 74c | 539.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 69c | 529.28$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.08 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 73c | 459.72$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 35c | 458.48$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 67c | 455.53$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 448.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838f…a5dcbacked No | 37c | 404.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 395.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.33 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 22c | 369.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…427cbacked Yes | 70c | 369.28$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 367.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 72c | 347.75$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…385bbacked No | 31c | 333.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 14c | 332.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 78c | 331.24$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 64c | 312.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…f309backed No | 31c | 309.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 67c | 304.67$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4030backed No | 36c | 281.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…88adbacked No | 4c | 266.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 76c | 238.1$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 21c | 236.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 20c | 229.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 62c | 214.73$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 67c | 202$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 67c | 200.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…d776backed No | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 25c | 191.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 28c | 179.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 173.02$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 32c | 172.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 28c | 170.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 71c | 166.87$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 17c | 163.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 161.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 32c | 160.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes | 67c | 152.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +357.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 152.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 32c | 148.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…4508backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…f7abbacked No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…2b20backed No | 38c | 133.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…a844backed Yes | 77c | 130.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 26c | 129.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 32c | 127.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 9c | 121.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 23c | 118.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…b4c6backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 23c | 109.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…6fcbbacked No | 43c | 104.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 30c | 101.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce44…c742backed No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 24c | 93.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f80…6512backed No | 23c | 87.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 32c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 32c | 84.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf513…234ebacked No | 37c | 80.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…04a5backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…03b1backed Yes | 73c | 72.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.