Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a8a163db26b3cce80ce3535eaf6347b976266fdf2aded0c07de668623139b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 18c | 10,922$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.73 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 9c | 2,109$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 2,019$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 10c | 2,006$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,089$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,076$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 16c | 1,055$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…0123backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,048$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 4c | 958.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 80c | 851.7$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 11c | 567.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 24c | 507.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e6…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 442.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12f…7f6cbacked Yes | 14c | 432.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 5c | 415.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 4c | 393.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 3c | 384.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d36…2a3bbacked Yes | 3c | 381.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +97%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 68c | 326.6$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 280$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 10c | 272.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…19ccbacked Yes | 5c | 254.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 18c | 222.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 8c | 206.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 205.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 17c | 178.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…6735backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 19c | 102.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…21c7backed No | 74c | 70.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 78c | 54.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d6c2backed No | 76c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.