Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0398cac23f5f391ee527cf8829b9b3f63581745f61ca46166233e78c3332abd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41ce…c6bcbacked Yes | 1c | 8,626$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 70c | 5,149$3,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.51 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,990$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 22c | 1,819$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…45ccbacked Yes | 23c | 1,305$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 77c | 1,279$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 78c | 1,139$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 23c | 999.92$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 77c | 806.91$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 80c | 693$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +504.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 78c | 691.72$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…d8a3backed Yes | 50c | 620$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 58c | 601.23$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.73 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 340.95$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 22c | 320.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 18c | 318.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 317.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 30c | 312.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 279.84$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…88b8backed No | 69c | 279.07$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 277$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 62c | 274.75$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 248.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 197.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 26c | 192.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 13c | 159.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 55c | 133.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 46c | 125.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 10c | 121.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…18d3backed Yes | 68c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 62c | 115$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 42c | 103.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c75…b5bfbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 27c | 92.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 82.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 79.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 19c | 72.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 76c | 70.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 55.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…f9f7backed Yes | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…8400backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…7fc8backed Yes | 26c | 44.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +85%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed No | 45c | 30.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…05ddbacked No | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…131cbacked Yes | 54c | 20.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 59c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f78…1141backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…b6c6backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…fe2ebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 17.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?this page
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.