Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ab3da4947427093f55255e93f5c2ee4ad49a50d75bc40f3a516c0c34237f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14dc…3933backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 25c | 8,468$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,316.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 55c | 6,283$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,841.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,422$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked No | 10c | 3,290$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +386.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 1c | 2,679$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 10c | 2,513$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,339$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 26c | 2,258$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 1c | 1,995$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 19c | 1,991$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 32c | 1,949$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.79 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 41c | 1,684$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.36 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e3…f314backed Yes | 3c | 1,680$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 28c | 1,223$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…03a0backed Yes | 72c | 1,171$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 77c | 1,135$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 986.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 1c | 900.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 10c | 824.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 790$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 4c | 750$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 25c | 690.88$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 656.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 34c | 621.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 69c | 568.69$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.4 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed Yes | 2c | 523.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed No | 29c | 520.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 28c | 507.58$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 38c | 499.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 26c | 499$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 466.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 11c | 464$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +367.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…c49bbacked Yes | 2c | 451.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 46c | 438.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 24c | 438.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 30c | 400.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.49 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 6c | 375.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +135%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 9c | 323$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +504.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 74c | 315.69$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 312.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.71 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 307.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.09 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 32c | 307$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Yes | 16c | 277.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 275.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 12c | 273.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…f194backed No | 32c | 271.11$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed Yes | 4c | 265.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…52b2backed Yes | 4c | 250.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 36c | 225$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 68c | 222$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 219.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…f93ebacked No | 10c | 204.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +411.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 56c | 202.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 31c | 202.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed No | 21c | 187.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +205.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…6a78backed No | 26c | 186.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked No | 16c | 180.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked No | 14c | 131.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…ba2fbacked Yes | 78c | 127.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 61c | 119.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…4659backed Yes | 29c | 103.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…f1aabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…cc05backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…92f8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 95.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 17c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 30c | 94.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaf…c55fbacked Yes | 15c | 78.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…1cd1backed Yes | 15c | 66.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 25c | 62.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +302.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed No | 33c | 50.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Yes | 26c | 47.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed Yes | 74c | 40.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe1…8833backed Yes | 42c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 62c | 36.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 36c | 32.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x631d…a059backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…bc8fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…d515backed Yes | 56c | 21.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 75c | 20.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…f99cbacked Yes | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…46eabacked Yes | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 71c | 16.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…9dfbbacked Yes | 78c | 16.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?this page
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.