TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa6b9…0a8b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
203
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: CS2, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 61 out of 100; worst Lol at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT4537.8%17 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-33.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Lol — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.06
LoL: Dignitas vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked Dignitas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
LoL: Disguised vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
LoL: Shifters vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$14.79
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 1 Winnerbacked LOS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.17
LoL: Team Heretics vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.75
LoL: Team Heretics vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.63
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$23.02
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$30.85
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$19.22
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winnerbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.59
LoL: SK Gaming vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.17
LoL: SK Gaming vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.73
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winnerbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.85
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$12.29
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.21
LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$5.79
LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.94
LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+84%+$22.83
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.33
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$10.92
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.1
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$30.41
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT3050%15 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.95
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.65
England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.8
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$115.05
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$142.08
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$97.35
England leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$227.18
Norway vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$101.36
Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.92
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.92
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$227.18
France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.05
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$150
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$38.08
Egypt leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Egypt to win the second half?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$43.07
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Egypt?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$36.3
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$135.2
Mexico vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Mexico vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Norway?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Spread: Norway (-1.5)backed Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$30.72
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT2740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+103%+$22.22
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.05
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.12
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$37.63
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.49
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.12
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$9.37
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.46
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.73
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.18
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$36.94
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.25
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.22
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.07
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$59.51
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.6
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+127.6%+$39.48
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.17
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.44
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+53.5%+$24.86
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+101.7%+$33.77
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.83
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+194.3%+$60.17
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.21
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.87
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT2676.9%20 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+29.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
CS2 — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs 5star (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games Asian Qualifier Playoffsbacked 5star · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+114.1%+$13.17
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagebacked Black Phoenix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$6.12
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.04
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$57.35
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+83.8%+$16.62
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+59.6%+$62.01
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$10.96
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.81
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$13.02
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.23
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$18.81
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+109.3%+$61.53
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$12.86
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$47.81
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$17.91
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$28.54
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+79%+$26
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.3
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.35
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+112.2%+$39.7
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$20.06
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+43%+$35.02
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$16.98
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic - Map 1 Winnerbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$35.17
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or below on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$271.08
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.63
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$296.04
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$93.33
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.08
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$57.23
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.88
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.92
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.96
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cordenons: Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrenabacked Stefano Napolitano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$97.35
Swiss Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Clement Taburbacked Clement Tabur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.79
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Fedor Sosedkin vs Denis Klokbacked Denis Klok · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.86
ITF Olomouc: Lucie Petruzelova vs Denisa Zoldakovabacked Lucie Petruzelova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.85
Cordenons: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondiolibacked Federico Bondioli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$97.35
ITF Gubbio: Pietro Marino vs Andrea Bacalonibacked Andrea Bacaloni · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.65
Newport: Liam Broady vs Alex Michelsenbacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$115.05
ITF Hillcrest: Jahnie Van Zyl vs Michika Ozekibacked Michika Ozeki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.88
Newport: Sachia Vickery vs Reese Brantmeierbacked Reese Brantmeier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.28
Trieste: Federico Bondioli vs Joel Schwaerzlerbacked Joel Schwaerzler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.72
Wimbledon ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Toby Samuelbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Maja Chwalinska · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick30cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Ballkani (-1.5)backed FC Ballkani · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.92
Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.9
Will US Mondorf-les-Bains win on 2026-07-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.8
Will NSÍ Runavík win on 2026-07-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.92
Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)backed PFK CSKA Sofia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.95
Europa FC vs. KF Shkëndija 79: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.95
Will FC Milsami Orhei win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Linfield FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$135.05
Will Atlétic Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-07-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.61
Exact Score: Atlétic Club d'Escaldes 2 - 1 FK Mornar Bar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.95
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+93.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+141.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$45.05
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$42.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$55.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lee Hodges win the 2026 John Deere Classic?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$19.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Summer League: Charlotte Hornets vs. New Orleans Pelicansbacked Charlotte Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mjallby AIF vs. AIK: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.