TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,693 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes42c2,704$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.391,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed No47c1,777$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.5111883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes43c1,666$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.6410539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes17c1,406$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.62,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes32c1,214$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.314,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No59c847$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.2797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Yes48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002532%8 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No56c441.58$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Yes24c416$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.841526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed No76c400$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.554983.7%41 W · 8 L+13.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes40c355.54$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.864,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66f…54bcbacked No73c337.48$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.983100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes16c296.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483225%8 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No59c285.22$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f7…932cbacked Yes16c262.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.254814.6%7 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No56c250$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes44c198.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.692,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No50c186$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3152758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes46c173$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.581,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked Yes42c157$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9413444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes46c152.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c152$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.042,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No67c150$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes19c142.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.741,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No65c139.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c138.4$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes41c120.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No62c112.96$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4487629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes27c110.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7986952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.631936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No51c102.56$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.283,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No52c100.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.031,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No57c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No57c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No23c92.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.351,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2756048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No17c89.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes35c89.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3513266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No59c84.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2279040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes77c78.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1583…bddebacked No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes48c66.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed No60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c60.65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No29c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No22c58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0449854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81a6…070fbacked Yes21c57.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125152.9%27 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+49.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No40c56.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No75c56.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.221,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes63c51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.259960.6%60 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2385049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No42c49.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.754,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No35c48.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.472,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No66c42.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.629038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes47c42.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc65e…0b4ebacked No67c42.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141883.3%15 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+26%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c42.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No59c42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes53c37.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2072952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No53c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4128360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes43c36.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7913540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes54c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8238860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c32.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5020…8d64backed No67c31.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.441172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0565…72e3backed Yes34c31.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7560%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4b3…e571backed No64c31.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.323237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes33c30.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No68c29.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5247175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No56c28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3728660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No62c26.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c10…5269backed No57c26.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.311637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No57c26.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb710…49c3backed No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.52937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbabc…f582backed Yes44c24.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.925971.2%42 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No69c24.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4725258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No53c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes47c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.347347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No67c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.261,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.253855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b62…33d9backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.742555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe67c…3de5backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.23432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No65c19.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.994,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes78c17.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5321964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2644…b207backed Yes74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-24.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.