IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5110caf39109c43b472e9048c29a7a337a383a6d2baed9225e8f93c69fd87af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 38c | 4,192$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,809$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.79 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 52c | 3,349$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.56 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 18c | 1,722$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 1,199$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 849.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 27c | 846.79$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 763.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…fd4cbacked Yes | 38c | 756.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 32c | 700.48$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 28c | 601.27$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed Yes | 74c | 539.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 37c | 523.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 72c | 488.75$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked No | 71c | 463.6$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 46c | 438.44$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 47c | 425$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 4c | 410.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 79c | 390.41$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 29c | 379.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 48c | 378$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 68c | 367.59$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 77c | 320.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 63c | 317.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 310.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 70c | 299.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…aa17backed No | 34c | 293.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 30c | 293$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…e780backed Yes | 72c | 273.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 272.6$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 14c | 258$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…689cbacked Yes | 35c | 257.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 30c | 256.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 256$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 243.76$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 70c | 235.47$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…3206backed Yes | 67c | 224.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…d4d9backed Yes | 33c | 211.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…d2fdbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 9c | 187.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 177.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 29c | 177$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 29c | 163$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 71c | 152.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 33c | 152.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…0c79backed Yes | 65c | 130.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…049fbacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 70c | 128$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 70c | 128$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 27c | 127.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…a5cabacked Yes | 29c | 121.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 115.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 11c | 112.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 108.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…e3eabacked Yes | 71c | 102.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 41c | 93.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c4…be5dbacked Yes | 32c | 86.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…32b6backed No | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…8b1fbacked Yes | 42c | 71.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 69.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 67.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 64.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 30c | 55.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b7…6c18backed Yes | 76c | 53.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…831dbacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…38ccbacked No | 27c | 48.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…cba8backed No | 22c | 48.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…ef7abacked No | 22c | 48.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 28c | 43.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…1b3ebacked Yes | 38c | 43.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 69c | 43.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +204%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 32c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 67c | 36.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 65c | 34.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…6327backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…621cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…7d59backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 23.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…281fbacked No | 71c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?this page
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.