TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x692e…6327

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.15
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$17.81
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.63
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$19.09
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.84
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.48
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+186.5%+$36.96
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-65.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+88.9%+$13.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.3
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.87
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+160.5%+$39.87
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+75.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$32.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$29.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.