TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$299,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc8c…dbefbacked No1c21,866$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.865626.8%15 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No8c9,893$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.146822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No0c7,608$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4312429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No11c6,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes76c4,353$3,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.531722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes73c4,179$3,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.1115649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No1c4,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed No4c4,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414932.7%16 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No26c3,729$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.31,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes73c3,506$2,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.0457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No6c3,109$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0414219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes72c3,013$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.946521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes58c2,698$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.9439723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes62c2,616$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.2128526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked No40c2,605$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No4c2,233$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No34c2,183$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.2611512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No38c2,112$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.067371.2%52 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes77c2,072$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.6329331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes51c1,997$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.2531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No25c1,935$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.2616941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No63c1,862$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.6517631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed No14c1,800$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25610432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No24c1,750$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.197357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No39c1,742$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9351845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes73c1,726$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.6713817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5758…e2d8backed Yes71c1,668$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.494946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked No21c1,637$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.9132613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed No21c1,578$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.548819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes58c1,521$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.5538828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes70c1,513$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.8228025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes71c1,476$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.213844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked Yes76c1,475$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.822290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No22c1,462$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.2613430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No40c1,306$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.0663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed Yes79c1,290$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.095743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x627f…f83abacked Yes76c1,284$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.992740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No26c1,187$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.0634425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc39c…019bbacked No16c1,163$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c1,122$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.337830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes70c1,023$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.8111729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes48c1,022$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.233033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7061…9233backed Yes58c976.25$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.554639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f67…bd8ebacked No9c966.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes62c919.6$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.2853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No22c900.24$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.757011.4%8 W · 62 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…cb18backed No38c844.18$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.372729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes54c837.92$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.8513511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes80c835.67$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.148633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c826$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.242628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes43c809.41$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.21,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad1b…9c62backed Yes38c801.13$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No53c788.08$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.3320735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No22c764.67$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8825012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4288…00e8backed Yes79c763.53$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1604141.5%17 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No27c748.66$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5187618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes68c709.39$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.276839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes57c698.04$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.186235.5%22 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes65c650.81$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.0917728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d36…8f64backed Yes78c621.41$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.32236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes41c620.6$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.564926.5%13 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes54c618.17$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5332529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No32c612.92$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.141560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes47c609.62$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.4914137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b11…5a66backed No19c602.32$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.871241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes58c599.98$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.9914025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No25c586.84$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9350319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes61c579.92$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.959726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe220…5f22backed Yes79c578.14$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes60c550$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22012332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No34c548.93$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd805…9eaabacked Yes60c506.5$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.65616.1%9 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31514413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607626.3%20 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31018822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked No11c491.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.15930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes38c480.4$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.8563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes64c476.12$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.136544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes51c475.15$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.0220129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c471.4$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4739518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No27c454$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.539233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes41c446.74$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.483938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c441.77$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.192,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked No12c408.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1214818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes73c405.56$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.859036.7%33 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20d…d518backed No52c402.41$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.22544%11 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x280f…1963backed Yes80c400$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfe…6222backed No23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked No8c400$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3114625.3%37 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes76c385.26$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.464035%14 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed No58c383.2$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.268630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes59c359.11$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8287917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed No14c345.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4310820.4%22 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes74c342.15$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4211529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes70c341.31$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.827432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes77c329.7$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.328528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked Yes49c309.73$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.175056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf28…3c9fbacked No63c307.28$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.