Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dff54f09236786b8e52b1d19b261f9126d27acde4d1fa75ff342ac19fd9a92f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $227,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 2c | 12,096$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 7c | 9,855$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.37 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7601…5136backed Yes | 7c | 4,595$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,510$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,505$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.57 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 18c | 3,341$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.11 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,301$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.61 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 17c | 3,242$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.99 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 3,112$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 1c | 2,901$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 11c | 2,785$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.61 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 2,519$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.37 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 2,441$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.34 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,187$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 6c | 2,107$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 78c | 2,019$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.86 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 8c | 1,965$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,944$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.81 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 78c | 1,685$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,582$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 1,540$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.21 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 15c | 1,499$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.55 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,494$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,393$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 11c | 1,369$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 1,295$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 14c | 1,278$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 4c | 1,217$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 16c | 1,143$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 1,136$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 1,120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 118 | 9.3%11 W · 107 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,045$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 13c | 995.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 1c | 953.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes | 17c | 953.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 12c | 924.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 11c | 878.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 11c | 876.15$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 866.27$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 15c | 834.75$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 13c | 829.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…9c62backed Yes | 25c | 799.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 14c | 753.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…11ebbacked No | 75c | 690$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 13c | 669.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 12c | 628.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 617.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 6c | 605.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 9c | 600.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 3c | 550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 3c | 530$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 25c | 529.62$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 26c | 499.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes | 15c | 498.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 14c | 497.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 10c | 463.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes | 11c | 459.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 10c | 455$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 5c | 447.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 9c | 414.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 15c | 409.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes | 29c | 404.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…2d8bbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…5105backed Yes | 11c | 394.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 76c | 385.91$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 26c | 373.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…a567backed Yes | 16c | 368.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 15c | 362.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes | 11c | 351.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…3b97backed Yes | 13c | 349.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 3c | 345$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 337.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 73c | 332.77$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed No | 77c | 330.21$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 78c | 323.14$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 5c | 310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked No | 71c | 300$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280b…d619backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…2204backed Yes | 11c | 297.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 11c | 296.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 9c | 295.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afa…72d7backed Yes | 30c | 278.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 8c | 272.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 22c | 260.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…9233backed Yes | 20c | 258.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 25c | 258.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 22c | 253.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 32c | 249.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes | 31c | 242.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 9c | 242.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…06fabacked Yes | 13c | 240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…7a69backed Yes | 27c | 231.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.