TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,964
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,964 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedc8…a743backed Yes2c12,096$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6124815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes7c9,855$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.3713817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7601…5136backed Yes7c4,595$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.44128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes7c3,510$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.316427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes8c3,505$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.5713511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes18c3,341$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.1117631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes26c3,301$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.6163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes17c3,242$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.9910521.9%23 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes10c3,112$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.41,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes2c3,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6428016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes1c2,901$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1119930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes11c2,785$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6148819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes13c2,519$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3788017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes13c2,441$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes11c2,187$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.4228025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes6c2,107$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.7816023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No78c2,019$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.865743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1038811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes8c1,965$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.241308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes15c1,944$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8128526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No78c1,685$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.415649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes4c1,600$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011111.7%13 W · 98 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes18c1,582$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.163821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c1,540$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.212,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes15c1,499$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes2c1,494$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.071,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes15c1,393$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.539723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes11c1,369$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6834425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c1,295$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3388018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c1,278$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes4c1,217$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes16c1,143$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.2146521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes14c1,136$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.381,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes4c1,120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.791189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes18c1,045$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1214413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes13c995.64$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.681,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes1c953.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.277211.1%8 W · 64 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x863b…4f2cbacked Yes17c953.16$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.386235.5%22 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes12c924.58$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.596429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes11c878.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.159627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes11c876.15$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.68407.5%3 W · 37 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c866.27$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.9651845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes15c834.75$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7815221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes13c829.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9529227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad1b…9c62backed Yes25c799.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes14c753.09$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.692338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e63…11ebbacked No75c690$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes13c669.95$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.094032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+103%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes12c628.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0911729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes9c617.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6284616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes6c605.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.246839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes9c600.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5314025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes3c550$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.512332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes3c530$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes25c529.62$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.391196.7%8 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-76.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes26c499.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3618822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes15c498.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.712711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes14c497.95$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.613134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes10c463.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.318528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes11c459.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.14429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes10c455$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511428.9%33 W · 81 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes5c447.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9719124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes9c414.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3246137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes15c409.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4438614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes29c404.81$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.094035%14 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a02…2d8bbacked No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd768…5105backed Yes11c394.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.352020%4 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6763…b14fbacked No76c385.91$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.385056%28 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes26c373.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.345930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…a567backed Yes16c368.59$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.775418.5%10 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes15c362.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0517728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes11c351.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.156624.2%16 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2df…3b97backed Yes13c349.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.65156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes3c345$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45920.3%12 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes9c337.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.439533.7%32 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No73c332.77$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.855567.3%37 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed No77c330.21$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes5c330$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2311424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No78c323.14$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7313844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes5c310$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.519020.5%39 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bc…06bfbacked No71c300$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x280b…d619backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423540%14 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b8…2204backed Yes11c297.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.89270%0 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes11c296.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4217722.6%40 W · 137 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes9c295.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.414818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1afa…72d7backed Yes30c278.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes8c272.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.823815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes22c260.07$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1853522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7061…9233backed Yes20c258.75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.674639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes25c258.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7617824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes22c253.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7316817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes32c249.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8022227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes31c242.64$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.456814.7%10 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes9c242.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.822176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes13c240$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb2…7a69backed Yes27c231.85$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.