Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e049d410d1d71e7d7a84191728b25dd14fdb70ab638027a4573c46bf305bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 255 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 25,031$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 23,461$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 4c | 13,112$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.8 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 12c | 10,168$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.91 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 8,398$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.13 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 7,464$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.36 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 19c | 6,283$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.33 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 5,022$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 5,011$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.84 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 20c | 3,831$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.13 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 13c | 3,729$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.49 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 28c | 3,716$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.4 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,576$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,528$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.7 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,326$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.46 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 23c | 3,008$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.21 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,817$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.7 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 24c | 2,597$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.48 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,416$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 22c | 2,285$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.56 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 20c | 1,998$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.44 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 1c | 1,996$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 6c | 1,931$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 78c | 1,841$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.75 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,716$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.21 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 15c | 1,705$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 17c | 1,697$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.09 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 27c | 1,548$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.85 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,444$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +97%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes | 5c | 1,357$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 15c | 1,342$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.14 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 1,327$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.69 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 22c | 1,283$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.05 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 6c | 1,258$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 22c | 1,245$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.96 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…6054backed Yes | 20c | 1,206$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,191$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.68 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 13c | 1,153$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc0…a20dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,122$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…abf9backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 79c | 1,088$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…39bcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,076$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 75c | 1,060$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.18 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 1,042$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.07 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…964ebacked Yes | 20c | 999.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 25c | 998.7$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.28 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 15c | 979$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 24c | 965.51$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.05 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 76c | 926.03$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes | 2c | 820.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 22c | 796.19$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes | 24c | 761.87$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.85 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 20c | 744.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.54 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 25c | 730.58$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 12c | 715.37$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 15c | 700$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 698.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 15c | 680.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed No | 75c | 679.6$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 20c | 675.78$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 16c | 626.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 22c | 600.42$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 19c | 549.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…cb18backed Yes | 15c | 542.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 26c | 530$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 24c | 530$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…8df8backed Yes | 20c | 529.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…9c62backed Yes | 27c | 515.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 11c | 504.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…c635backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…9eaabacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…e2afbacked No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 17c | 499.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 20c | 499.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 28c | 493.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587d…e8cdbacked Yes | 19c | 472.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0151…3691backed Yes | 25c | 415.34$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 15c | 411.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 22c | 404.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 23c | 393.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 391.61$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 78c | 375.73$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 19c | 374.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddab…505ebacked No | 78c | 373.16$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…2574backed No | 79c | 373.02$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8e19backed Yes | 18c | 370.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 25c | 364.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.