Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350e2d9f623035816b9744abf69fcce856b1507f5ad364adc3fcea0fa5ac8697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 10,880$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…1631backed Yes | 0c | 10,625$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…7423backed Yes | 0c | 9,879$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 8,802$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.15 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 7,255$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…3b97backed Yes | 0c | 6,867$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…2204backed Yes | 1c | 5,168$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 3,630$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 1c | 3,101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 0c | 2,845$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,988$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,862$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,825$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 1c | 1,795$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…f760backed Yes | 4c | 1,778$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275b…1780backed Yes | 4c | 1,573$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,561$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 1c | 1,546$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,525$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,465$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 3c | 1,381$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…45b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 81 | 8.6%7 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,337$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,166$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…8604backed Yes | 4c | 1,083$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…06fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…ed9dbacked Yes | 5c | 826.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 2c | 807.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 726.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 2c | 699.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 597$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 553.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…dfa6backed Yes | 4c | 527.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 499.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 464.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 4c | 446.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 4c | 420.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 355.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c29…27bcbacked Yes | 4c | 284.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afa…72d7backed Yes | 5c | 278.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…7a69backed Yes | 5c | 226.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…6900backed Yes | 6c | 180.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.