TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$800,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$828,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $800,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd27f…5707backed No0c111,833$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x857b…0fd4backed Yes62c56,629$35,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,376.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…2c71backed Yes62c56,521$35,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,250.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3aa…f737backed No0c7,389$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…5db7backed No0c6,663$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c4,900$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes73c4,511$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.331643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78a1…e6bdbacked No14c4,384$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.660%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No14c4,319$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.421330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No5c4,100$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc319…0e0cbacked No13c2,700$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.2590%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked No60c2,613$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick40cpaid+1,150%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e9b…f335backed No51c2,033$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes39c1,769$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.092934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No23c1,764$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.665221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No11c1,750$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No40c1,722$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.091546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de7…a9c8backed No59c1,684$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No12c1,500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1851421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No8c1,499$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0619818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No21c1,428$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.885510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed No9c1,400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No8c1,400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10670%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No55c1,251$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa973…f0f6backed No47c1,154$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.7825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes53c1,132$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.36041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked Yes50c1,093$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+55.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed No44c1,066$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.041643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed Yes53c1,066$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.021457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+63.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No1c1,031$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.89348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes41c1,025$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked No49c997$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.53825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed No39c989$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.711250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes56c961$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.841758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1db8…bf7abacked Yes53c951.37$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b63…8f36backed Yes75c934.47$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed Yes56c917$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.482040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa098…81e4backed No50c910$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed No50c891$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes50c889$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x002c…8c0bbacked Yes57c871.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked No61c859$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.992450%12 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No50c827$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No47c817$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.391275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+63.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes37c800.91$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4131…ef62backed Yes63c785.18$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9efe…d947backed No58c779$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.8270%0 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked Yes51c775$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.752050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes79c761.87$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.562774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked No42c744$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.481136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes42c725$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.51346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes61c719$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.411533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No24c700$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1654148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No27c691$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.574157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed No43c682$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes57c673$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01dd…fb46backed Yes50c662$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3311250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes61c654$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.061741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked No39c654$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.061631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No49c652$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.481225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f8…6c22backed Yes57c640$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+110.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes51c637$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.131844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No43c626.73$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.758933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes42c581$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes54c579.4$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.4618323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes61c572$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.082441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed No50c568$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2841625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed No18c563.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+54.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed No39c524$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2b…d78bbacked No50c522$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Yes61c508$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.121250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No39c504$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.561850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes72c503.54$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.178257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc68d…2fe8backed No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6b65backed No43c498$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.141442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No50c490$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked No50c487$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+91.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f9a…6fb2backed No44c487$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+64.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes50c484$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2421662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes61c481$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.591723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-57.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xabae…ecaebacked Yes73c479.23$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No42c478$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.053336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes50c478$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2391442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…36b2backed Yes50c469$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.57100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+98.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No45c466$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.71764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes55c466$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.71050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes50c445$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked No50c444$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2221643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes75c439.99$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.562437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes50c439$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.52343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No58c424$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.921650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked No50c405$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-39.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes50c398.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.25277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed Yes50c397$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No50c385$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes50c385$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes58c376$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.922462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes58c368$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.561457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes68c367.65$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.651752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes51c363$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.872147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.