AI · resolved market
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19be7c46e28b61455ec766679ee1122fba39eb0d5c85d0878e4b203ab8b18406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $800,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $828,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $800,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd27f…5707backed No | 0c | 111,833$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x857b…0fd4backed Yes | 62c | 56,629$35,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,376.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…2c71backed Yes | 62c | 56,521$35,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,250.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…f737backed No | 0c | 7,389$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…5db7backed No | 0c | 6,663$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 4,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 73c | 4,511$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 14c | 4,384$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 14c | 4,319$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 5c | 4,100$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 13c | 2,700$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 60c | 2,613$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…f335backed No | 51c | 2,033$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 39c | 1,769$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.09 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 23c | 1,764$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.66 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 11c | 1,750$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 40c | 1,722$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed No | 59c | 1,684$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 12c | 1,500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 1,499$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 1,428$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 9c | 1,400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 8c | 1,400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 55c | 1,251$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa973…f0f6backed No | 47c | 1,154$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 53c | 1,132$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.3 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 50c | 1,093$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 44c | 1,066$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 53c | 1,066$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 1c | 1,031$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 41c | 1,025$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 49c | 997$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 39c | 989$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 56c | 961$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…bf7abacked Yes | 53c | 951.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b63…8f36backed Yes | 75c | 934.47$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 56c | 917$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 50c | 910$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed No | 50c | 891$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 50c | 889$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8c0bbacked Yes | 57c | 871.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 61c | 859$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 50c | 827$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 47c | 817$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 37c | 800.91$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…ef62backed Yes | 63c | 785.18$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 58c | 779$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 51c | 775$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 79c | 761.87$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.56 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 42c | 744$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 42c | 725$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 61c | 719$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 24c | 700$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 27c | 691$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 43c | 682$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 57c | 673$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed Yes | 50c | 662$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 61c | 654$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 39c | 654$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 49c | 652$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 57c | 640$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 51c | 637$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 43c | 626.73$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 42c | 581$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 54c | 579.4$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.46 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 61c | 572$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 50c | 568$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 18c | 563.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 39c | 524$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 50c | 522$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 61c | 508$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 39c | 504$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 72c | 503.54$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.17 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…2fe8backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed No | 43c | 498$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 50c | 487$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed No | 44c | 487$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 50c | 484$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 61c | 481$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…ecaebacked Yes | 73c | 479.23$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 42c | 478$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.05 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 50c | 478$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed Yes | 50c | 469$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 45c | 466$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes | 55c | 466$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 50c | 445$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 50c | 444$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 75c | 439.99$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 50c | 439$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 58c | 424$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 50c | 405$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 50c | 398.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 50c | 397$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 50c | 385$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 50c | 385$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 58c | 376$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 58c | 368$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 51c | 363$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.87 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?this page
- Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?No won
- Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?No won
- Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.