AI · resolved market
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c9a70d8cb47541cc7d6f09f18437371dd3b375c945f73dd294484ad09d48e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,247$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,007$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 21c | 1,494$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +120%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…8179backed Yes | 16c | 800.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 79c | 764$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 11c | 666$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5619…ee5bbacked Yes | 16c | 652.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 79c | 621$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 12c | 607$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 17c | 601$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 13c | 516$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 11c | 510$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 12c | 492$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 12c | 460$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 12c | 413$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 12c | 349$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes | 12c | 327$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 17c | 278$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 11c | 277$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed Yes | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 12c | 259$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 11c | 249$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 12c | 249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 218.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed Yes | 11c | 184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 10c | 166.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 158.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 141.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 13c | 114.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 79c | 109$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 98.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…f987backed Yes | 18c | 63.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…a101backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?this page
- Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?No won
- Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Yes won
- Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.