AI · resolved market
Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935f71018092c4f90aa08c310bb26a4a12096b1ddf5af6afa008a9b14531d1ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a8c…68febacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 22c | 2,112$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 78c | 979$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes | 22c | 979$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 78c | 819$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 78c | 774$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 3c | 648.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 78c | 519$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 8c | 157.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 133.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…716dbacked Yes | 14c | 110.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 104.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 60.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…dd5dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…75a6backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sabih Khan be the next CEO of Apple?this page
- Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?No won
- Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?No won
- Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.