IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8745a33913271c683ce5cc46dead9e53ac494edc4fd8018a778c5aecf8f17f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 13c | 1,705$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…b2f6backed Yes | 15c | 1,626$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,280$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,097$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes | 14c | 856.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…fd4cbacked Yes | 16c | 676.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 2c | 658.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes | 8c | 594.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…79e8backed Yes | 6c | 450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…16acbacked Yes | 18c | 416.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…87c0backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 381.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…d4d9backed Yes | 19c | 368.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 6c | 365.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 19c | 350$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…4b97backed Yes | 5c | 348.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c4…be5dbacked Yes | 18c | 339.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…836bbacked Yes | 21c | 324.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…0c79backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Yes | 13c | 269.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 13c | 210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…15eebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 196.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 176.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…e780backed Yes | 27c | 144.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a1…2cd5backed Yes | 20c | 123.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 9c | 119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9d…6e15backed Yes | 28c | 108.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 15c | 105.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…65e4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…8b1fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?this page
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.