IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65ec5bdaa7f9f099b81f0deef967d7a254c243c94985b6f7dae17bfd85a2a27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,392$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 5c | 1,337$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,315$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c4…be5dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,054$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…69acbacked Yes | 8c | 847.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…2b8ebacked Yes | 8c | 700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 5c | 692.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 20c | 505.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 3c | 504.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…230abacked Yes | 5c | 431.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 28c | 417$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 4c | 409.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…fd4cbacked Yes | 33c | 382.05$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 356.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 31c | 323.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 28c | 316.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…6293backed Yes | 34c | 295.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…65e4backed Yes | 29c | 277$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 72c | 256$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…d4d9backed Yes | 29c | 241$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 217$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…c878backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 80c | 196.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 70c | 180.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 27c | 160.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94d…e6cfbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…69e7backed Yes | 18c | 131.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…397ebacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 9c | 112.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 105.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…014ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…5c2abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862e…0b2ebacked Yes | 28c | 96.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 71c | 67.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…d83fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 71c | 60.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…16ebbacked Yes | 28c | 54.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50d…38a4backed No | 70c | 48.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4f…b935backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 39.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 29c | 35.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 74c | 23.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…d46fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…3714backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2186…32e2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…248ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2b…517fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…41c2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…9edbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…7a9dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…be11backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?this page
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.