IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa813a31c1a1bf58a59f42cded0c121de21c63aa4ae0132f7a15ce95d8974076b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ce…5fa8backed Yes | 4c | 2,279$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…f86ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,191$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…8f83backed Yes | 5c | 1,890$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…1258backed Yes | 5c | 1,691$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…8f38backed Yes | 5c | 1,483$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a7…6a84backed Yes | 5c | 1,385$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…b675backed Yes | 5c | 1,256$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 5c | 1,255$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…d947backed Yes | 5c | 1,178$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ae…5ab3backed Yes | 4c | 1,147$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9c…5263backed Yes | 5c | 1,127$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0631backed Yes | 5c | 1,044$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Yes | 6c | 1,029$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a0a7backed Yes | 5c | 997$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…c4a6backed Yes | 5c | 961.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fd…9611backed Yes | 5c | 954$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…fc06backed Yes | 5c | 905$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…d15abacked Yes | 4c | 886$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b5…6a16backed Yes | 5c | 735$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadce…dd00backed Yes | 5c | 728.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…79e4backed Yes | 4c | 680$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 6c | 647.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 644.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 5c | 611.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…d2fdbacked Yes | 6c | 569.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 6c | 520.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 4c | 499.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9f…e43fbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…ee06backed Yes | 6c | 223.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…6c81backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?this page
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T?No won
- Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.