Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543bd300e2cd88c8129c0db04f58907075bb373e2eb37746d9df8dd55d0337a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed No | 60c | 608.61$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked Yes | 41c | 576.51$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.51 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 259.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 21c | 250.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 219.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 7c | 148.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 28c | 107$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 60c | 93.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 54c | 92.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…08f4backed Yes | 61c | 80.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 57c | 78.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 50.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 69c | 46.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…9a41backed Yes | 69c | 43.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 59c | 35.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed No | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 77c | 27.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…aae7backed Yes | 65c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.