Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17547db3634c155fa0540be68d976ac08ac522883c596a0afbf32926c5d9f21c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ab…8b8dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 230.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 191.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Yes | 8c | 182.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 8c | 181.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 48c | 142.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 47c | 97.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 37c | 78.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 72.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…c8dbbacked Yes | 57c | 61.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 66c | 45.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 45.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 32c | 39.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 38.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…13d7backed No | 59c | 37.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 66c | 36.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 35.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 32c | 35.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 35.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 65c | 24.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 67c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed Yes | 53c | 20.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 68c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.