World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24985d03d515ce28dd1c89edd3547dc9cc7160a429d449fb963530dbb8f4798c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 1,040$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.82 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 3c | 764.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 762.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.99 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 642.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.91 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 58c | 639.96$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 70c | 631.71$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 57c | 592.93$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 2c | 552.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.26 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 42c | 546.41$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.7 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 4c | 494.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.63 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 31c | 483$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 47c | 480$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 48c | 480$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.17 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 31c | 480$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 4c | 393.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +645.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 6c | 384.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.21 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 38c | 320$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.84 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 8c | 312$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.27 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 77c | 306.08$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 305.58$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 287.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 249.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 31c | 239$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +7.0wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 6c | 225.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 7c | 207.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.43 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 202$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 72c | 201.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 187.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 155$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 19c | 154.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 70c | 151.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 149.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 68c | 147.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 143.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 134.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 129.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 10c | 113.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 108.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 90.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 17c | 87.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 80.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 69.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a03…0b5ebacked No | 17c | 67.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed No | 17c | 65.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 36c | 58.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 41.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 22.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.