TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e5e…dbfdbacked Yes0c4,187$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes5c1,219$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.69944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7805…6396backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes4c592$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.611039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes51c374.42$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5110043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c327.6$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.136055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c306.05$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No49c299.03$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.556533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes11c269$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4952850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes56c252.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c218.1$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes53c202.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes54c198.85$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.018636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes46c181.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No48c168.48$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.516437.5%24 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes62c160$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c158.22$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.256336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes40c149.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c148.59$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes10c142$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes46c140.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6518638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c133.62$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1623459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No40c132.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.234358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No60c128.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.347058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes35c126.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.274139%16 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No46c123$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9331152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked Yes52c123$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.195957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes52c110$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.15837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes17c110$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes52c105.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c102.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.857560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No47c102.58$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7218762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes34c101.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.840648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5711045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No69c99.58$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No47c98.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2127438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c98.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.886330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes51c98.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes51c97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.475749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes25c96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes51c95.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.572634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22d7…608dbacked No43c94.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes60c94.16$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.53040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No40c91.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.923231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507c…c876backed Yes52c85.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c85.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c83.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.738856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No45c77.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes56c76.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.171952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes59c76.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.12147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-82.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.441,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes57c66.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4722029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No51c64.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3614954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes57c63.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.548236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No63c62.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9718035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No51c61.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.999123.1%21 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.543063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No49c59.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes55c58.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.263641.7%15 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No44c57.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.084129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No44c55.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.982626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes38c54.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.422653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes57c53.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7744428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No65c52.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes38c51.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7412238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No43c51.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes21c51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6310837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c50.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.168235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…acc7backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked No51c49.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.431741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No48c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.613551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes59c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.411330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes49c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.034233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No49c46.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes48c46.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4339414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed No40c46.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.041163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No49c44.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.795141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0239952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc91…2842backed No47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No44c41.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.256445.3%29 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No49c40.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.72475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc6d…fe80backed Yes48c40.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes47c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes58c39.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.012045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.739936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No46c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No56c35.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4610640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No53c33.81$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9416051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes49c33.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.