World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd265a541c4c624fa5e554cfe019862ca35ee2e677b17836763e703f610527dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e5e…dbfdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,187$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 5c | 1,219$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…6396backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 592$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 374.42$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.51 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 327.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 306.05$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 49c | 299.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 269$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 56c | 252.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 218.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 53c | 202.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 54c | 198.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.01 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 46c | 181.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 168.48$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 158.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 40c | 149.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 148.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 142$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 140.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 133.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 40c | 132.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 128.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 126.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 123$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 102.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 102.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 101.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 69c | 99.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 98.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 98.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 51c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 95.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…608dbacked No | 43c | 94.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 60c | 94.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 40c | 91.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 52c | 85.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 85.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 83.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 45c | 77.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 56c | 76.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 59c | 76.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 57c | 66.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 64.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 63.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 62.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 51c | 61.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 49c | 59.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 55c | 58.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 44c | 57.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 44c | 55.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 38c | 54.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 53.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 65c | 52.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 51.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 50.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…acc7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked No | 51c | 49.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 48c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 49c | 46.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 46.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 40c | 46.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 49c | 44.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…2842backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 44c | 41.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 49c | 40.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…fe80backed Yes | 48c | 40.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 58c | 39.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 33.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 49c | 33.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.